Related papers: Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Conditional …
Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…
Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…
Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…
We continue the investigation of Bernstein-von Mises theorems for nonparametric Bayes procedures from [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028]. We introduce multiscale spaces on which nonparametric priors and posteriors are naturally defined,…
We analyze the posterior contraction rates of parameters in Bayesian models via the Langevin diffusion process, in particular by controlling moments of the stochastic process and taking limits. Analogous to the non-asymptotic analysis of…
In statistics, there are a variety of methods for performing model selection that all stem from slightly different paradigms of statistical inference. The reasons for choosing one particular method over another seem to be based entirely on…
We study nonparametric Bayesian statistical inference for the parameters governing a pure jump process of the form $$Y_t = \sum_{k=1}^{N(t)} Z_k,~~~ t \ge 0,$$ where $N(t)$ is a standard Poisson process of intensity $\lambda$, and $Z_k$ are…
We consider a sparse linear regression model with unknown symmetric error under the high-dimensional setting. The true error distribution is assumed to belong to the locally $\beta$-H\"{o}lder class with an exponentially decreasing tail,…
We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…
We propose an empirical likelihood ratio test for nonparametric model selection, where the competing models may be nested, nonnested, overlapping, misspecified, or correctly specified. It compares the squared prediction errors of models…
We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In…
Unsupervised estimation of latent variable models is a fundamental problem central to numerous applications of machine learning and statistics. This work presents a principled approach for estimating broad classes of such models, including…
The aim of this note is to state a couple of general results about the properties of the penalized maximum likelihood estimators (pMLE) and of the posterior distribution for parametric models in a non-asymptotic setup and for possibly large…
Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…
We study the problem of estimating the mode and maximum of an unknown regression function in the presence of noise. We adopt the Bayesian approach by using tensor-product B-splines and endowing the coefficients with Gaussian priors. In the…
The Bernstein-von Mises theorem (BvM) gives conditions under which the posterior distribution of a parameter $\theta\in\Theta\subseteq\mathbb R^d$ based on $n$ independent samples is asymptotically normal. In the high-dimensional regime, a…
In Bayesian statistics, the selection of noninformative priors is a crucial issue. There have been various discussions on theoretical justification, problems with the Jeffreys prior, and alternative objective priors. Among them, we focus on…
The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…
Bayesian inference provides a framework to combine various model components with shared parameters, allowing joint uncertainty estimation and the use of all available data sources. Unfortunately, misspecification of any part of the model…