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Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are methods for estimating pointwise out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated at the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-18 Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman , Jonah Gabry

This paper introduces an estimator of the relative directed distance between an estimated model and the true model, based on the Kulback-Leibler divergence and is motivated by the generalized information criterion proposed by Konishi and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-06 Antonino Abbruzzo , Ivan Vujačić , Ernst Wit , Angelo M. Mineo

Akaike's Bayesian information criterion (ABIC) has been widely used in geophysical inversion and beyond. However, little has been done to investigate its statistical aspects. We present an alternative derivation of the marginal distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-10 Peiliang Xu

A bias correction to Akaike's information criterion (AIC) is derived for seemingly unrelated regressions models. The correction is of particular use when the sample size is not much larger than the number of fitted parameters. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-06-05 J. L. van Velsen

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-18 Marcelo Hartmann , Georgi Agiashvili , Paul Bürkner , Arto Klami

In the Bayesian framework power prior distributions are increasingly adopted in clinical trials and similar studies to incorporate external and past information, typically to inform the parameter associated to a treatment effect. Their use…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Roberto Macrì Demartino , Leonardo Egidi , Nicola Torelli , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Bayesian likelihood-free inference, which is used to perform Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, enjoys an increasing number of important scientific applications. However, many aspects of a Bayesian analysis become more…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Atlanta Chakraborty , David J. Nott , Michael Evans

Model selection in linear regression models is a major challenge when dealing with high-dimensional data where the number of available measurements (sample size) is much smaller than the dimension of the parameter space. Traditional methods…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-05 Prakash B. Gohain , Magnus Jansson

The Bayesian information criterion (BIC), defined as the observed data log likelihood minus a penalty term based on the sample size $N$, is a popular model selection criterion for factor analysis with complete data. This definition has also…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-21 Jianhua Zhao , Changchun Shang , Shulan Li , Ling Xin , Philip L. H. Yu

In many applications in biology, engineering and economics, identifying similarities and differences between distributions of data from complex processes requires comparing finite categorical samples of discrete counts. Statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Francesco Camaglia , Ilya Nemenman , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak

A statistical model or a learning machine is called regular if the map taking a parameter to a probability distribution is one-to-one and if its Fisher information matrix is always positive definite. If otherwise, it is called singular. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-09-03 Sumio Watanabe

This paper introduces Kernel-based Information Criterion (KIC) for model selection in regression analysis. The novel kernel-based complexity measure in KIC efficiently computes the interdependency between parameters of the model using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-12-16 Somayeh Danafar , Kenji Fukumizu , Faustino Gomez

In many conventional scientific investigations with high or ultra-high dimensional feature spaces, the relevant features, though sparse, are large in number compared with classical statistical problems, and the magnitude of their effects…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-07-14 Shan Luo , Zehua Chen

Methods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly) make the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-06-25 Thijs van Ommen

The integration of external data using Bayesian mixture priors has become a powerful approach in clinical trials, offering significant potential to improve trial efficiency. Despite their strengths in analytical tractability and practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Shouhao Zhou , Qiuxin Gao , Chenqi Fu , Yanxun Xu

Evaluation of the marginal likelihood plays an important role in model selection problems. The widely applicable Bayesian information criterion (WBIC) and singular Bayesian information criterion (sBIC) give approximations to the log…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-28 Toru Imai

Shi and Tsai (JRSSB, 2002) proposed an interesting residual information criterion (RIC) for model selection in regression. Their RIC was motivated by the principle of minimizing the Kullback-Leibler discrepancy between the residual…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-11-14 Chenlei Leng

We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-25 Jie Ding , Vahid Tarokh , Yuhong Yang

Mixture model-based clustering has become an increasingly popular data analysis technique since its introduction over fifty years ago, and is now commonly utilized within a family setting. Families of mixture models arise when the component…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-11 Sanjeena Subedi , Paul D. McNicholas

A widely applicable Bayesian information criterion (Watanabe, 2013) is applicable for both regular and singular models in the model selection problem. This criterion tends to overestimate the log marginal likelihood. We identify an…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-29 Toru Imai