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Bayesian model selection provides the cosmologist with an exacting tool to distinguish between competing models based purely on the data, via the Bayesian evidence. Previous methods to calculate this quantity either lacked general…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 J. R. Shaw , M. Bridges , M. P. Hobson

Network models are applied across many domains where data can be represented as a network. Two prominent paradigms for modeling networks are statistical models (probabilistic models for the observed network) and mechanistic models (models…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-20 Sixing Chen , Antonietta Mira , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

A new computation method of frequentist $p$-values and Bayesian posterior probabilities based on the bootstrap probability is discussed for the multivariate normal model with unknown expectation parameter vector. The null hypothesis is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-24 Hidetoshi Shimodaira

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

We perform extensive Monte Carlo simulations to systematically compare the frequentist and Bayesian treatments of the Lomb--Scargle periodogram. The goal is to investigate whether the Bayesian period search is advantageous over the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-22 Roman V. Baluev

This paper proposes Bayesian mosaic, a parallelizable composite posterior, for scalable Bayesian inference on a broad class of multivariate discrete data models. Sampling is embarrassingly parallel since Bayesian mosaic is a multiplication…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-03 Ye Wang , David Dunson

We implement Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for the case of fractional Brownian motion with measurement noise and a constant drift. The approach is tested on artificial trajectories and shown to make estimates that match…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-04-05 Jens Krog , Lars H. Jacobsen , Frederik W. Lund , Daniel Wüstner , Michael A. Lomholt

Heckman selection model is the most popular econometric model in analysis of data with sample selection. However, selection models with Normal errors cannot accommodate heavy tails in the error distribution. Recently, Marchenko and Genton…

Computation · Statistics 2014-01-08 Peng Ding

The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-09-01 Alan H. Guth , Mohammad Hossein Namjoo

Engineers are often faced with the decision to select the most appropriate model for simulating the behavior of engineered systems, among a candidate set of models. Experimental monitoring data can generate significant value by supporting…

Applications · Statistics 2023-10-17 Antonios Kamariotis , Eleni Chatzi

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-13 Luis G. Leon-Novelo , Terrance D. Savitsky

Bayesian methods provide a natural means for uncertainty quantification, that is, credible sets can be easily obtained from the posterior distribution. But is this uncertainty quantification valid in the sense that the posterior credible…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-02 Ryan Martin , Bo Ning

We propose an interdisciplinary framework that combines Bayesian predictive inference, a well-established tool in Machine Learning, with Formal Methods rooted in the computer science community. Bayesian predictive inference allows for…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-21 Laura Vana , Ennio Visconti , Laura Nenzi , Annalisa Cadonna , Gregor Kastner

Equivariant models leverage prior knowledge on symmetries to improve predictive performance, but misspecified architectural constraints can harm it instead. While work has explored learning or relaxing constraints, selecting among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans , Dharmesh Tailor , Erik J. Bekkers

For future surveys, spectroscopic follow-up for all supernovae will be extremely difficult. However, one can use light curve fitters, to obtain the probability that an object is a Type Ia. One may consider applying a probability cut to the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2014-10-24 Michelle Lochner , Bruce A. Bassett , Melvin Varughese , Renée Hlozek , Martin Kunz , Mat Smith , James Newling

Computer simulations have become an important tool across the biomedical sciences and beyond. For many important problems several different models or hypotheses exist and choosing which one best describes reality or observed data is not…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2010-01-20 Tina Toni , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random variables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Sarthak Mittal , Yoshua Bengio , Nikolay Malkin , Guillaume Lajoie

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-28 Naveen Naidu Narisetty , Xuming He

Boosting methods are widely used in statistical learning to deal with high-dimensional data due to their variable selection feature. However, those methods lack straightforward ways to construct estimators for the precision of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Boyao Zhang , Colin Griesbach , Cora Kim , Nadia Müller-Voggel , Elisabeth Bergherr