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In this paper a novel modification of the multilevel Monte Carlo approach, allowing for further significant complexity reduction, is proposed. The idea of the modification is to use the method of control variates to reduce variance at level…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-03-14 Denis Belomestny , Tigran Nagapetyan

In solving simulation-based stochastic root-finding or optimization problems that involve rare events, such as in extreme quantile estimation, running crude Monte Carlo can be prohibitively inefficient. To address this issue, importance…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-23 Shengyi He , Guangxin Jiang , Henry Lam , Michael C. Fu

In this paper we present a novel approach towards variance reduction for discretised diffusion processes. The proposed approach involves specially constructed control variates and allows for a significant reduction in the variance for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-05 Denis Belomestny , Stefan Häfner , Mikhail Urusov

The trace of a matrix function f(A), most notably of the matrix inverse, can be estimated stochastically using samples< x,f(A)x> if the components of the random vectors x obey an appropriate probability distribution. However such a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-26 Andreas Frommer , Mostafa Nasr Khalil , Gustavo Ramirez-Hidalgo

In this work, we introduce a control variate approximation technique for low error approximate Deep Neural Network (DNN) accelerators. The control variate technique is used in Monte Carlo methods to achieve variance reduction. Our approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Georgios Zervakis , Ourania Spantidi , Iraklis Anagnostopoulos , Hussam Amrouch , Jörg Henkel

We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-03 Masahiro Fujisawa , Issei Sato

A number of coupling strategies are presented for stochastically modeled biochemical processes with time-dependent parameters. In particular, the stacked coupling is introduced and is shown via a number of examples to provide an…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-04 David F. Anderson , Chaojie Yuan

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a widely-used technique for generating a dependent sequence of samples from complex distributions. Conventionally, these methods require a source of independent random variates. Most implementations use…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-17 Iain Murray , Lloyd T. Elliott

Expectation values of physical quantities may accurately be obtained by the evaluation of integrals within Many-Body Quantum mechanics, and these multi-dimensional integrals may be estimated using Monte Carlo methods. In a previous…

Computational Physics · Physics 2009-10-01 J. R. Trail

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Jan Palczewski , Wojciech Rejchel

Monte Carlo event generators are an essential tool for data analysis in collider physics. To include subleading quantum corrections, these generators often need to produce negative weight events, which leads to statistical dilution of the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-10-21 Benjamin Nachman , Jesse Thaler

When dealing with difficult inverse problems such as inverse rendering, using Monte Carlo estimated gradients to optimise parameters can slow down convergence due to variance. Averaging many gradient samples in each iteration reduces this…

Graphics · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Martin Balint , Karol Myszkowski , Hans-Peter Seidel , Gurprit Singh

In this paper, we consider the implementation of multi-level Monte Carlo method to a stochastic optimal control problem with log-normal coefficients and its surrogate model problem. From the perspective of two optimization problems, i.e.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-01-19 Qi Sun , Ju Ming

This paper concerns numerical assessment of Monte Carlo error in particle filters. We show that by keeping track of certain key features of the genealogical structure arising from resampling operations, it is possible to estimate variances…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-29 Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

We introduce a stacking version of the Monte Carlo algorithm in the context of option pricing. Introduced recently for aeronautic computations, this simple technique, in the spirit of current machine learning ideas, learns control variates…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-03-27 Antoine Jacquier , Emma R. Malone , Mugad Oumgari

We present a novel quasi-Monte Carlo mechanism to improve graph-based sampling, coined repelling random walks. By inducing correlations between the trajectories of an interacting ensemble such that their marginal transition probabilities…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Isaac Reid , Eli Berger , Krzysztof Choromanski , Adrian Weller

We present a new Subset Simulation approach using Hamiltonian neural network-based Monte Carlo sampling for reliability analysis. The proposed strategy combines the superior sampling of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-11 Denny Thaler , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Franz Bamer , Bernd Markert , Michael D. Shields

We introduce a new approach for amortizing inference in directed graphical models by learning heuristic approximations to stochastic inverses, designed specifically for use as proposal distributions in sequential Monte Carlo methods. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Brooks Paige , Frank Wood

In this paper we propose a novel and practical variance reduction approach for additive functionals of dependent sequences. Our approach combines the use of control variates with the minimisation of an empirical variance estimate. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-18 D. Belomestny , L. Iosipoi , E. Moulines , A. Naumov , S. Samsonov

Many biochemical systems appearing in applications have a multiscale structure so that they converge to piecewise deterministic Markov processes in a thermodynamic limit. The statistics of the piecewise deterministic process can be obtained…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-12-30 Ethan Levien , Paul C. Bressloff
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