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Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a principled framework for data-efficient design of sequential experiments. However, existing BED methods are unable to adapt to dynamic constraints inherent in real-world tasks due to budget…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-27 Yujia Guo , Daolang Huang , Xinyu Zhang , Sammie Katt , Samuel Kaski , Ayush Bharti

Determining the causal structure of a set of variables is critical for both scientific inquiry and decision-making. However, this is often challenging in practice due to limited interventional data. Given that randomized experiments are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-28 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Karren Yang , Karthik Shanmugam , Caroline Uhler

Identification of optimal dose combinations in early phase dose-finding trials is challenging, due to the trade-off between precisely estimating the many parameters required to flexibly model the possibly non-monotonic dose-response…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 James Willard , Shirin Golchi , Erica E. M. Moodie , Bruno Boulanger , Bradley P. Carlin

This research considers the ranking and selection with input uncertainty. The objective is to maximize the posterior probability of correctly selecting the best alternative under a fixed simulation budget, where each alternative is measured…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-05-15 Hui Xiao , Zhihong Wei

Real-world robots are becoming increasingly complex and commonly act in poorly understood environments where it is extremely challenging to model or learn their true dynamics. Therefore, it might be desirable to take a task-specific…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-25 Somil Bansal , Roberto Calandra , Ted Xiao , Sergey Levine , Claire J. Tomlin

We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-17 Tom Rainforth , Tuan Anh Le , Jan-Willem van de Meent , Michael A. Osborne , Frank Wood

Bayesian filtering is a well-known problem that aims to estimate plausible states of a dynamical system from observations. Among existing approaches to solve this problem, particle filters are theoretically exact for non-linear dynamics and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Thomas Savary , François Rozet , Gilles Louppe

Development and optimization of biopharmaceutical production processes with cell cultures is cost- and time-consuming and often performed rather empirically. Efficient optimization of multiple-objectives like process time, viable cell…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Tanja Hernández Rodríguez , Anton Sekulic , Markus Lange-Hegermann , Björn Frahm

We consider robust optimal experimental design (ROED) for nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). An optimal design is one that maximizes some utility quantifying the quality of the solution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-01 Abhijit Chowdhary , Ahmed Attia , Alen Alexanderian

An early phase clinical trial is the first step in evaluating the effects in humans of a potential new anti-disease agent or combination of agents. Usually called "phase I" or "phase I/II" trials, these experiments typically have the…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-01 Peter F. Thall

In computer experiments, a mathematical model implemented on a computer is used to represent complex physical phenomena. These models, known as computer simulators, enable experimental study of a virtual representation of the complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-03 Hugh Chipman , Pritam Ranjan , Weiwei Wang

Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-17 Steven Kleinegesse , Michael U. Gutmann

We present a review of methods for optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations with infinite-dimensional parameters. The focus is on problems where one seeks to optimize the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-01 Alen Alexanderian

Biological systems are governed by coupled interactions between intracellular metabolism and bioreactor operation that span multiple time scales. Constraint-based metabolic models are widely used to describe intracellular metabolism, but…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-30 Peter E. Carstensen , Teddy Groves , Lars K. Nielsen , Ulrich Krühne , Krist V. Gernaey , John B. Jørgensen

History-dependent constitutive models serve as macroscopic closures for the aggregated effects of micromechanics. Their parameters are typically learned from experimental data. With a limited experimental budget, eliciting the full range of…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-04-28 Kaushik Bhattacharya , Lianghao Cao , Andrew Stuart

We present a Bayesian approach for modeling multivariate, dependent functional data. To account for the three dominant structural features in the data--functional, time dependent, and multivariate components--we extend hierarchical dynamic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-02 Daniel R. Kowal , David S. Matteson , David Ruppert

Here we introduce a new design framework for synthetic biology that exploits the advantages of Bayesian model selection. We will argue that the difference between inference and design is that in the former we try to reconstruct the system…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-27 Chris Barnes , Daniel Silk , Xia Sheng , Michael P. H. Stumpf

This study examines the application of Bayesian approach in the context of clinical trials, emphasizing their increasing importance in contemporary biomedical research. While conventional frequentist approach provides a foundational basis…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Paramahansa Pramanik , Arnab Kumar Maity , Anjan Mandal , Haley Kate Robinson

We present a method for computing A-optimal sensor placements for infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems governed by PDEs with irreducible model uncertainties. Here, irreducible uncertainties refers to uncertainties in the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Karina Koval , Alen Alexanderian , Georg Stadler

This paper proposes a new approach to construct high quality space-filling sample designs. First, we propose a novel technique to quantify the space-filling property and optimally trade-off uniformity and randomness in sample designs in…

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