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Structural reliability analysis is concerned with estimation of the probability of a critical event taking place, described by $P(g(\textbf{X}) \leq 0)$ for some $n$-dimensional random variable $\textbf{X}$ and some real-valued function…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-13 Christian Agrell , Kristina Rognlien Dahl

We propose an algorithm for Bayesian functional optimisation - that is, finding the function to optimise a process - guided by experimenter beliefs and intuitions regarding the expected characteristics (length-scale, smoothness, cyclicity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Alistair Shilton , Sunil Gupta , Santu Rana , Svetha Venkatesh

A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of medical decisions that adapts to the evolving clinical status of a patient over time. To facilitate personalized care, it is crucial to assess the probability of each available treatment option…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Jiefeng Bi , Matteo Borrotti , Bernardo Nipoti

Optimal Bayesian design techniques provide an estimate for the best parameters of an experiment in order to maximize the value of measurements prior to the actual collection of data. In other words, these techniques explore the space of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-08-11 Alexander Tarakanov , Ahmed H. Elsheikh

We develop a fast and scalable computational framework to solve large-scale and high-dimensional Bayesian optimal experimental design problems. In particular, we consider the problem of optimal observation sensor placement for Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-11-09 Keyi Wu , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

Fractional polynomial models are potentially useful for response surfaces investigations. With the availability of routines for fitting nonlinear models in statistical packages they are increasingly being used. However, as in all…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luzia A. Trinca , Steven G. Gilmour

In experiments to estimate parameters of a parametric model, Bayesian experiment design allows measurement settings to be chosen based on utility, which is the predicted improvement of parameter distributions due to modeled measurement…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-26 Robert D. McMichael , Sean M. Blakley

Experimental design is central to science and engineering. A ubiquitous challenge is how to maximize the value of information obtained from expensive or constrained experimental settings. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) provides…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Sofia Mäkinen , Andrew B. Duncan , Tapio Helin

Experiments in engineering are typically conducted in controlled environments where parameters can be set to any desired value. This assumes that the same applies in a real-world setting -- an assumption that is often incorrect as many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Mike Diessner , Kevin J. Wilson , Richard D. Whalley

We study the problem of causal structure learning over a set of random variables when the experimenter is allowed to perform at most $M$ experiments in a non-adaptive manner. We consider the optimal learning strategy in terms of minimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-01 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-07 Markus Hainy , David J. Price , Olivier Restif , Christopher Drovandi

Many chemical and biological experiments involve multiple treatment factors and often it is convenient to fit a nonlinear model in these factors. This nonlinear model can be mechanistic, empirical or a hybrid of the two. Motivated by…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-09 Yuanzhi Huang , Steven Gilmour , Kalliopi Mylona , Peter Goos

Real world experiments are expensive, and thus it is important to reach a target in minimum number of experiments. Experimental processes often involve control variables that changes over time. Such problems can be formulated as a…

A novel method combining maximum entropy principle, the Bayesian-inference of ensembles approach, and the optimization of empirical forward models is presented. Here we focus on the Karplus parameters for RNA systems, which relate the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-06-06 Thorben Fröhlking , Mattia Bernetti , Giovanni Bussi

We propose a novel Bayesian optimization (BO) procedure aimed at identifying the ``profile optima'' of a deterministic black-box computer simulation that has a single control parameter and multiple nuisance parameters. The profile optima…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Courtney Kyger , James Fernandez , John A. Grunenwald , James Braun , Annie Booth

We study the problem of causal discovery through targeted interventions. Starting from few observational measurements, we follow a Bayesian active learning approach to perform those experiments which, in expectation with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Julius von Kügelgen , Paul K Rubenstein , Bernhard Schölkopf , Adrian Weller

We propose practical extensions to Bayesian optimization for solving dynamic problems. We model dynamic objective functions using spatiotemporal Gaussian process priors which capture all the instances of the functions over time. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-12 Favour M. Nyikosa , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

Optimal experimental design (OED) aims to choose the observations in an experiment to be as informative as possible, according to certain statistical criteria. In the linear case (when the observations depend linearly on the unknown…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Ruhui Jin , Martin Guerra , Qin Li , Stephen Wright

Optimal experimental design provides a way of determining a-priori the best locations at which to place accelerometers in vibrations analysis experiments. However, in practice, sensors often fail during experimentation due high mechanical…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Rebekah White , Chandler Smith , Drew Kouri , Jace Ritchie , Wilkins Aquino , Timothy Walsh

Mathematical methods provide useful framework for the analysis and design of complex systems. In newer contexts such as biology, however, there is a need to both adapt existing methods as well as to develop new ones. Using a combination of…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2017-12-06 Abhishek Dey , Shaunak Sen
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