Related papers: Tail processes for stable-regenerative multiple-st…

In this paper we study the self-similar processes with stationary increments in a discrete-time setting. Different from the continuous-time case, it is shown that the scaling function of such a process may not take the form of a power…

In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…

The well-known M4 processes of Smith and Weissman are very flexible models for asymptotically dependent multivariate data. Extended M4 of Heffernan \emph{et al.} allows to also account for asymptotic independence. In this paper we introduce…

The stable tail dependence function provides a full characterization of the extremal dependence structures. Unfortunately, the estimation of the stable tail dependence function often suffers from significant bias, whose scale relates to the…

We consider a Markov modulated fluid network with a finite number of stations. We are interested in the tail asymptotics behavior of the stationary distribution of its buffer content process. Using two different approaches, we derive upper…

This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk…

For many environmental processes, recent studies have shown that the dependence strength is decreasing when quantile levels increase. This implies that the popular max-stable models are inadequate to capture the rate of joint tail decay,…

In this paper, we consider the state-dependent reflecting random walk on a half-strip. We provide explicit criteria for (positive) recurrence, and an explicit expression for the stationary distribution. As a consequence, the light-tailed…

Identifying risk spillovers in financial markets is of great importance for assessing systemic risk and portfolio management. Granger causality in tail (or in risk) tests whether past extreme events of a time series help predicting future…

Many biological processes are supported by special molecules, called motor proteins or molecular motors, that transport cellular cargoes along linear protein filaments and can reversibly associate to their tracks. Stimulated by these…

We study clustering of the extremes in a stationary sequence with subexponential tails in the maximum domain of attraction of the Gumbel We obtain functional limit theorems in the space of random sup-measures and in the space $D(0,\infty)$.…

Exact analytic calculations in spin-1/2 XY chains, show the presence of long-time tails in the asymptotic dynamics of spatially inhomogeneous excitations. The decay of inhomogeneities, for $t\to \infty $, is given in the form of a power law…

We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…

To disentangle the complex non-stationary dependence structure of precipitation extremes over the entire contiguous U.S., we propose a flexible local approach based on factor copula models. Our sub-asymptotic spatial modeling framework…

There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…

Archimedean copulas generated by Laplace transforms have been extensively studied in the literature, with much of the focus on tail dependence limited only to cases where the Laplace transforms exhibit regular variation with positive tail…

In this paper we consider sample path growth of superpositions of Ornstein--Uhlenbeck type processes (supOU). SupOU processes are stationary infinitely divisible processes defined as integrals with respect to a random measure. They allow…

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

The probability and structure of co-occurrences of extreme values in multivariate data may critically depend on auxiliary information provided by covariates. In this contribution, we develop a flexible generalized additive modeling…

We present elliptical processes, a family of non-parametric probabilistic models that subsume Gaussian processes and Student's t processes. This generalization includes a range of new heavy-tailed behaviors while retaining computational…