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Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting…
Infectious disease spread is a multi-scale process composed of within-host (biological) and between-host (social) drivers and disentangling them from each other is a central challenge in epidemiology. Here, we introduce VIBES, a multi-scale…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…
Epidemic propagation on networks represents an important departure from traditional massaction models. However, the high-dimensionality of the exact models poses a challenge to both mathematical analysis and parameter inference. By using…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
Emerging infectious diseases are existential threats to human health and global stability. The recent outbreaks of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 have rapidly formed a global pandemic, causing hundreds of thousands of infections and huge…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
Although we have made progress in understanding disease spread in complex systems with non-Poissonian activity patterns, current models still fail to capture the full range of recovery time distributions. In this paper, we propose an…
Wildlife disease surveillance programs and research studies track infection and identify risk factors for wild populations, humans, and agriculture. Often, several types of samples are collected from individuals to provide more complete…
Many uncontrollable disease outbreaks of the past exposed several vulnerabilities in the healthcare systems worldwide. While advancements in technology assisted in the rapid creation of the vaccinations, there needs to be a pressing focus…
Infectious diseases pose significant human and economic burdens. Accurately forecasting disease incidence can enable public health agencies to respond effectively to existing or emerging diseases. Despite progress in the field, developing…
Time series forecasting methods play critical role in estimating the spread of an epidemic. The coronavirus outbreak of December 2019 has already infected millions all over the world and continues to spread on. Just when the curve of the…
Accurate identification of respiratory viruses (RVs) is critical for outbreak control and public health. This study presents a diagnostic system that combines Attenuated Total Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR)…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…
Strain-level identification of viruses is critical for effective public health responses to potential outbreaks, yet current diagnostic methods often lack the necessary speed or sensitivity. Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) offers…
We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…
The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is still threatening the world because of a possible resurgence. In the current situation that effective medical treatments such as antiviral drugs are not discovered yet, dynamical…
Forecasting is critical in areas such as finance, biology, and healthcare. Despite the progress in the field, making accurate forecasts remains challenging because real-world time series contain both global trends, local fine-grained…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…