Related papers: PRRS Outbreak Prediction via Deep Switching Auto-R…
Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains widely distributed across the U.S. swine industry. Between-farm movement of animals and transportation vehicles, along with local transmission are the primary routes by…
Vehicle movements, including vehicle cabs and trailers, play a role in disseminating disease in swine production. However, there are many information gaps about vehicle movements patterns that increase the probability of disease…
The role of transportation vehicles, pig movement between farms, proximity to infected premises, and feed deliveries has not been fully considered in the dissemination dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). This has limited…
Since the 21st century, the global outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, and H7N9 in 2013, have become the critical threat to the public health and a hunting nightmare to the government. Understanding the…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
Animal movement networks are essential in understanding and containing the spread of infectious diseases in farming industries. Due to its confidential nature, movement data for the US swine farming population is not readily available.…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful…
Accurate forecasting of contagious diseases is critical for public health policymaking and pandemic preparedness. We propose a new infectious disease forecasting model based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), an emerging…
Modeling epidemic spread is critical for informing policy decisions aimed at mitigation. Accordingly, in this work we present a new data-driven method based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to model epidemic spread through the…
Effective biosecurity practices in swine production are key in preventing the introduction and dissemination of infectious pathogens. Ideally, biosecurity practices should be chosen by their impact on bio-containment and bio-exclusion,…
African Swine Fever (ASF) represents the main threat to swine production, with heavy economic consequences for both farmers and the food industry. The spread of the virus that causes ASF through Europe raises the issues of identifying…
The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…
In this work, we present an approach called Disease Informed Neural Networks (DINNs) that can be employed to effectively predict the spread of infectious diseases. This approach builds on a successful physics informed neural network…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
Insect outbreaks are biotic disturbances in forests and agroecosystems that cause economic and ecological damage. This phenomenon depends on a variety of biological and physical factors. The complexity and practical importance of the issue…
The spread of African swine fever (ASF) poses a grave threat to the global swine industry. Understanding transmission dynamics, such as through mechanistic modeling, is critical for designing effective control strategies. Articles were…
The spread of many infectious diseases is modeled using variants of the SIR compartmental model, which is a coupled differential equation. The coefficients of the SIR model determine the spread trajectories of disease, on whose basis…