Related papers: The winter dilemma
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
Public health measures were among the most polarizing topics debated online during the COVID-19 pandemic. Much of the discussion surrounded specific events, such as when and which particular interventions came into practise. In this work,…
The determination of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a key aim for many of the field studies that are currently being undertaken in response to the pandemic. The IFR together with the basic…
The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been holding the world hostage for more than a year now. Mobility is key to viral spreading and its restriction is the main non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the virus expansion. Previous works…
An epidemic carries human and fiscal costs. In the case of imported pandemics, the first-best solution is to restrict national borders to identify and isolate infected individuals. However, when that opportunity is not fully seized and…
When the body gets infected by a pathogen the immune system develops pathogen-specific immunity. Induced immunity decays in time and years after recovery the host might become susceptible again. Exposure to the pathogen in the environment…
The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has left an unprecedented impact on health, economy and society worldwide. Emerging strains are making pandemic management increasingly challenging. There is an urge to collect epidemiological, clinical,…
In this paper, we present the model of the interaction between the spread of disease and the spread of information about the disease in multilayer networks. Next, based on the characteristics of the SARS-COV-2 virus pandemic, we evaluated…
Viruses causing flu or milder coronavirus colds are often referred to as "seasonal viruses" as they tend to subside in warmer months. In other words, meteorological conditions tend to impact the activity of viruses, and this information can…
The outbreak of Covid-19 led the world to an unprecedent health and economical crisis. In an attempt to responde to this emergency researchers worldwide are intensively studying the Covid-19 pandemic dynamics. In this work, a SIRSi…
The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different…
Finding mechanisms to promote the use of face masks is fundamental during the second phase of the COVID-19 pandemic response, when shelter-in-place rules are relaxed and some segments of the population are allowed to circulate more freely.…
Several models have been developed to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, and how it could be contained with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing restrictions and school and business closures. This paper…
Downsizing the US public health workforce throughout 2025 amplifies potential risks during public health crises. Expert judgment from public health officials represents a vital information source, distinct from traditional surveillance…
Understanding the role of vegetation fires in the Earth system has become an important environmental problem. Although fires time occurrence is mainly influenced by climate, human activity related with land use and management has altered…
Vaccine adverse events have been presumed to be a relatively objective measure that is immune to political polarization. The real-world data, however, shows the correlation between presidential disapproval ratings and the subjective…
The advent and subsequent widespread availability of preventive vaccines has altered the course of public health over the past century. Despite this success, effective vaccines to prevent many high-burden diseases, including HIV, have been…
We investigate the strategic behavior of a large population of agents who decide whether to adopt a costly partially effective protection or remain unprotected against the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic. In contrast with most…
The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be…
We critically examine the often-made observation that "quantum winter [or some other winter] is coming", and the related admonition to prepare for this or that winter, inevitably bound to arrive. What we find based on even the most…