Related papers: The winter dilemma
Models for epidemic spread typically account for variable risk factors but do not account for the correlation between behavior and risk. Here we extend these models to account for such correlations. We find that a positive correlation…
This paper presents a critical analysis of the literature and perspective research ideas for modeling the epidemics caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It goes beyond deterministic population dynamics to consider several key complexity features…
Politically divided societies are also often divided emotionally: people like and trust those with similar political views (in-group favoritism) while disliking and distrusting those with different views (out-group animosity). This…
In temperate climates, infection rates of enveloped viruses peak during the winter. While these seasonal trends are established in influenza and human coronaviruses, the mechanisms driving the variation remain poorly understood and thus…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are effective measures to contain a pandemic. Yet, such control measures commonly have a negative effect on the economy. Here, we propose a macro-level approach to support resolving this…
The Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus represents an unprecedented crisis for our planet. It is a bane of the \"uber connected world that we live in that this virus has affected almost all countries and…
The global SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the challenge of equitable vaccine distribution between high- and low-income countries. Many high-income countries were reluctant or slow to distribute extra doses of the vaccine to…
Contemporary Epidemiological Surveillance (ES) relies heavily on data analytics. These analytics are critical input for pandemics preparedness networks; however, this input is not integrated into a form suitable for decision makers or…
Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To…
Widespread uptake of vaccines is necessary to achieve herd immunity. However, uptake rates have varied across U.S. states during the first six months of the COVID-19 vaccination program. Misbeliefs may play an important role in vaccine…
Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…
Using recent data from voluntary mass testing, I provide credible bounds on prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 for Austrian counties in early December 2020. When estimating prevalence, a natural missing data problem arises: no test results are…
Estimating the causal effect of a time-varying public health intervention on the course of an infectious disease epidemic is an important methodological challenge. During the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers attempted to estimate the effects…
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and…
Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population…
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated a trade-off between the health impacts of viral spread and the social and economic costs of restrictions. We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of…
Understanding the social determinants of preventive behavior is vital for epidemic modelling and effective policy making. Traditional models emphasize imitation or rational trade-offs, but recent evidence highlights the role of social…
As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has shown profound effects on public health and the economy worldwide, it becomes crucial to assess the impact on the virus transmission and develop effective strategies to address the challenge. A…
A pressing question resulting from global warming is how infectious diseases will be affected by climate change. Answering this question requires research into the effects of weather on the population dynamics of transmission and infection;…