Related papers: The winter dilemma
The interplay between the virus, infected cells and the immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 is still under debate. Extending the basic model of viral dynamics we propose here a formal approach to describe the neutralizing versus weakly (or…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
Until a vaccine or therapy is found against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, reaching herd immunity appears to be the only mid-term option. However, if the number of infected individuals decreases and eventually fades only beyond this threshold,…
An analysis drawing on Signal Detection Theory suggests that people may fall for misinformation because they are unable to discern true from false information (truth insensitivity) or because they tend to accept information with a…
Seasonal influenza is a significant public health concern in the United States and globally. While influenza vaccines are the single most effective intervention to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality, there is considerable debate…
The impact of climate conditions on influenza epidemiology has mostly been studied by addressing a singular aspect of transmission and a climate variable correlating to it. As climate change unfolds at an unprecedented rate, we urgently…
Our society is built on a complex web of interdependencies whose effects become manifest during extraordinary events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, with shocks in one system propagating to the others to an exceptional extent. We analyzed…
The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes,…
Governments and public health authorities use seroprevalence studies to guide responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Seroprevalence surveys estimate the proportion of individuals who have detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. However, serologic…
The COVID-19 outbreak implied many changes in the daily life of most of the world's population for a long time, prompting severe restrictions on sociality. The Behavioral Immune System (BIS) suggests that when facing pathogens, a…
Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…
To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make? To answer this question, we investigate 2 state-of-the-art NPI effectiveness models and…
We present and analyze a mathematical model to study the feedback between behavior and epidemic spread in a population that is actively assessing and reacting to risk of infection. In our model, a population dynamically forms an opinion…
We present in this work some results from analysing the spread of Covid-19 in different countries and regions around the world and the potential relations with climate, geographical location, and GDP. While the situation remains dynamic, we…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions being implemented around the world to curb transmission. However, the economic and social costs of some of these…
We consider a SIR model with temporary immunity and time dependent transmission rate. We assume time dependent vaccination which confers the same immunity as natural infection. We study two types of vaccination strategies: i) optimal…
Recurrent waves which are often observed during long pandemics typically form as a result of several interrelated dynamics including public health interventions, population mobility and behaviour, varying disease transmissibility due to…
As a reaction to the high infectiousness and lethality of the COVID-19 virus, countries around the world have adopted drastic policy measures to contain the pandemic. However, it remains unclear which effect these measures, so-called…
Restrictions on social and economic activities, as well as vaccinations, have been a key intervention in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. Our work focuses on better understanding the options available to policymakers under the conditions…