Related papers: COFFEE: COVID-19 Forecasts using Fast Evaluations …

COVID-19 has challenged health systems to learn how to learn. This paper describes the context, methods and challenges for learning to improve COVID-19 care at one academic health center. Challenges to learning include: (1) choosing a right…

Infectious disease forecasting for ongoing epidemics has been traditionally performed, communicated, and evaluated as numerical targets - 1, 2, 3, and 4 week ahead cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. While there is great value in…

Severe acute respiratory disease SARS-CoV-2 has had a found impact on public health systems and healthcare emergency response especially with respect to making decisions on the most effective measures to be taken at any given time. As…

We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic calls for a multi-faceted public health response comprising complementary interventions to control the spread of the disease while vaccines and therapies are developed. Many of these interventions need to be…

Reliable short term forecasting can provide potentially lifesaving insights into logistical planning, and in particular, into the optimal allocation of resources such as hospital staff and equipment. By reinterpreting COVID-19 daily cases…

Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have…

In this paper we develop a SIR epidemiological model with parameters calculated according to existing data at the time of writing (24/03/2020); the data is from Italy, South Korea and Colombia, the model is then used to project the…

In real-time forecasting in public health, data collection is a non-trivial and demanding task. Often after initially released, it undergoes several revisions later (maybe due to human or technical constraints) - as a result, it may take…

Some patients with COVID-19 show changes in signs and symptoms such as temperature and oxygen saturation days before being positively tested for SARS-CoV-2, while others remain asymptomatic. It is important to identify these subgroups and…

COVID-19 pandemic has an unprecedented impact all over the world since early 2020. During this public health crisis, reliable forecasting of the disease becomes critical for resource allocation and administrative planning. The results from…

Accurate and reliable forecasting models are critical for guiding public health responses and policy decisions during pandemics such as COVID-19. Retrospective evaluation of model performance is essential for improving epidemic forecasting…

Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…

Modern Bayesian approaches and workflows emphasize in how simulation is important in the context of model developing. Simulation can help researchers understand how the model behaves in a controlled setting and can be used to stress the…

Since early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been interest in using artificial intelligence methods to predict COVID-19 infection status based on vocal audio signals, for example cough recordings. However,…

Using a hybrid of machine learning and epidemiological approaches, we propose a novel data-driven approach in predicting US COVID-19 deaths at a county level. The model gives a more complete description of the daily death distribution,…

Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…

In this paper, we propose a real-time robot-based auxiliary system for risk evaluation of COVID-19 infection. It combines real-time speech recognition, temperature measurement, keyword detection, cough detection and other functions in order…

An accurate and efficient forecasting system is imperative to the prevention of emerging infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in public health. This system requires accurate transient modeling, lower computation cost, and fewer observation…

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Due to the rapid human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, many healthcare systems…