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This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Qingsong Wen , Tian Zhou , Chaoli Zhang , Weiqi Chen , Ziqing Ma , Junchi Yan , Liang Sun

Accurate predictions of when a component will fail are crucial when planning maintenance, and by modeling the distribution of these failure times, survival models have shown to be particularly useful in this context. The presented…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Olov Holmer , Mattias Krysander , Erik Frisk

Time series forecasting is an important task in many fields ranging from supply chain management to weather forecasting. Recently, Transformer neural network architectures have shown promising results in forecasting on common time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Rares Cristian , Pavithra Harsha , Clemente Ocejo , Georgia Perakis , Brian Quanz , Ioannis Spantidakis , Hamza Zerhouni

Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-08-20 Anton Nemchenko , Trent Kyono , Mihaela Van Der Schaar

Accurate prediction of disease trajectories is critical for early identification and timely treatment of patients at risk. Conventional methods in survival analysis are often constrained by strong parametric assumptions and limited in their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-28 Daniel Jarrett , Jinsung Yoon , Mihaela van der Schaar

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

Transfer learning is a powerful technique for knowledge-sharing between different tasks. Recent work has found that the representations of models with certain invariances, such as to adversarial input perturbations, achieve higher…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Till Speicher , Vedant Nanda , Krishna P. Gummadi

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Hrushikesh Loya , Pranav Poduval , Deepak Anand , Neeraj Kumar , Amit Sethi

In randomized trials and observational studies, it is often necessary to evaluate the extent to which an intervention affects a time-to-event outcome, which is only partially observed due to right censoring. For instance, in infectious…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yutong Jin , Peter B. Gilbert , Aaron Hudson

Although recent model-free reinforcement learning algorithms have been shown to be capable of mastering complicated decision-making tasks, the sample complexity of these methods has remained a hurdle to utilizing them in many real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Saeed Moazami , Peggy Doerschuk

A survival dataset describes a set of instances (e.g. patients) and provides, for each, either the time until an event (e.g. death), or the censoring time (e.g. when lost to follow-up - which is a lower bound on the time until the event).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Ali Hossein Gharari Foomani , Michael Cooper , Russell Greiner , Rahul G. Krishnan

In recurrent survival analysis where the event of interest can occur multiple times for each subject, frailty models play a crucial role by capturing unobserved heterogeneity at the subject level within a population. Frailty models…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-30 Borna Bateni , Peyman Bateni , Bishwadeep Bhattacharyya , Devin Reeh

In healthcare, risk assessment of patient outcomes has been based on survival analysis for a long time, i.e. modeling time-to-event associations. However, conventional approaches rely on data from a single time-point, making them suboptimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Mine Öğretir , Miika Koskinen , Juha Sinisalo , Risto Renkonen , Harri Lähdesmäki

The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in different contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the essential dynamics of survival analysis,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-18 Trevor Fenner , Mark Levene , George Loizou

Recently, researchers have started applying convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with one-dimensional convolutions to clinical tasks involving time-series data. This is due, in part, to their computational efficiency, relative to recurrent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-19 Jeeheh Oh , Jiaxuan Wang , Jenna Wiens

In many real problems, dependence structures more general than exchangeability are required. For instance, in some settings partial exchangeability is a more reasonable assumption. For this reason, vectors of dependent Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-20 Alan Riva Palacio , Fabrizio Leisen

Recently developed survival analysis methods improve upon existing approaches by predicting the probability of event occurrence in each of a number pre-specified (discrete) time intervals. By avoiding placing strong parametric assumptions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-25 Jimmy Hickey , Ricardo Henao , Daniel Wojdyla , Michael Pencina , Matthew M. Engelhard

Survival analysis aims to estimate a time-to-event distribution from data with censored observations. Many existing methods either impose structural assumptions on the hazard function or discretize the time axis, which may limit flexibility…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Stanislav R. Kirpichenko , Andrei V. Konstantinov , Lev V. Utkin

Multivariate time series (MTS) analysis prevails in real-world applications such as finance, climate science and healthcare. The various self-attention mechanisms, the backbone of the state-of-the-art Transformer-based models, efficiently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Quang Minh Nguyen , Lam M. Nguyen , Subhro Das