Related papers: Cram\'{e}r moderate deviations for a supercritical…
We discuss approximations of the relative limit densities of descendants in Galton--Watson processes that follow from the Karlin--McGregor near-constancy phenomena. These approximations are based on the fast exponentially decaying Fourier…
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide an essential tool in statistics for sampling from complex probability distributions. While the standard approach to MCMC involves constructing discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition…
We present an efficient finite difference method for the computation of parameter sensitivities that is applicable to a wide class of continuous time Markov chain models. The estimator for the method is constructed by coupling the perturbed…
In this paper, we investigate a stochastic approximation procedure $\left(X_n\right)_{n\ge 0}$ taking values in $R$. The process is adapted to a filtration $(F_n)_{n\ge 0}$ and satisfies the recursion…
We provide sufficient conditions which ensure that the intrinsic martingale in the supercritical branching random walk converges exponentially fast to its limit. The case of Galton-Watson processes is particularly included so that our…
The goal of this paper is to show that a single robust estimator of the mean of a multivariate Gaussian distribution can enjoy five desirable properties. First, it is computationally tractable in the sense that it can be computed in a time…
Given a super-critical Galton-Watson process $\{Z_n\}$ and a positive sequence $\{\epsilon_n\}$, we study the limiting behaviors of $P(S_{Z_n}/Z_n\geq\epsilon_n)$ and $P(S_{Z_n}/m^n\geq\epsilon_n) $ with sums $S_{n}$ of i.i.d. random…
We present a new pruning procedure on discrete trees by adding marks on the nodes of trees. This procedure allows us to construct and study a tree-valued Markov process $\{{\cal G}(u)\}$ by pruning Galton-Watson trees and an analogous…
In estimation of a normal mean matrix under the matrix quadratic loss, we develop a general formula for the matrix quadratic risk of orthogonally invariant estimators. The derivation is based on several formulas for matrix derivatives of…
The classical Galton--Watson process works with a fixed probability of fission at each time step. One of the generalizations is that the probabilities depend on time. We consider one of the most complex and interesting cases when we do not…
We apply Lindeberg's method, invented to prove a central limit theorem, to analyze the moderate deviations around such a central limit theorem. In particular, we will show moderate deviation principles for martingales as well as for random…
In this paper, we study the Galton-Watson process in the random environment for the particular case when the number of the offsprings in each generation has the fractional linear generation function with random parameters. In this case, the…
We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of…
We investigate Kesten-Stigum-like results for multi-type Galton-Watson processes with a countable number of types in a general setting, allowing us in particular to consider processes with an infinite total population at each generation.…
In this paper, we establish the exact Fourier dimensions of all standard sub-critical Gaussian multiplicative chaos on the unit interval, thereby confirming the Garban-Vargas conjecture. The proof relies on a significant improvement of the…
We consider the problem of approximating the product of $n$ expectations with respect to a common probability distribution $\mu$. Such products routinely arise in statistics as values of the likelihood in latent variable models. Motivated…
We prove exponential moments for linear combinations of the number of individuals of each type of a whole multitype Poissonian Galton Watson process. We give sharp estimates for such quantities, which depend on the expectation of the…
In the common nonparametric regression model the problem of testing for a specific parametric form of the variance function is considered. Recently Dette and Hetzler (2008) proposed a test statistic, which is based on an empirical process…
As well known, for a supercritical Galton-Watson process $Z_n$ whose offspring distribution has mean $m>1$, the ratio $W_n:=Z_n/m^n$ has a.s. limit, say $W$. We study tail behaviour of the distributions of $W_n$ and $W$ in the case where…
This paper studies quantitative deviation bounds for statistical ensembles evolving under the one-parameter flow of a nearly integrable Hamiltonian system. Combining Nekhoroshev-type stability estimates with phase-mixing arguments, we…