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Accurate weather prediction is essential for many aspects of life, notably the early warning of extreme weather events such as rainstorms. Short-term predictions of these events rely on forecasts from numerical weather models, in which,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Guoxing Chen , Wei-Chyung Wang

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This, in turn, is exacting a significant toll in communities worldwide. While prediction skills are increasing with advances in numerical weather…

Disaster prediction is one of the most critical tasks towards disaster surveillance and preparedness. Existing technologies employ different machine learning approaches to predict incoming disasters from historical environmental data.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-08-12 Hamada M. Zahera , Mohamed Ahmed Sherif , Axel Ngonga

The aim of this study is to compare two supervised classification methods on a crucial meteorological problem. The data consist of satellite measurements of cloud systems which are to be classified either in convective or non convective…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-18 Anne Ruiz , Nathalie Villa

Thunderstorms have significant social and economic impacts due to heavy precipitation, hail, lightning, and strong winds, necessitating reliable forecasts. Thunderstorm forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) often rely on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-12 Kianusch Vahid Yousefnia , Christoph Metzl , Tobias Bölle

Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-07 Sheila Alemany , Jonathan Beltran , Adrian Perez , Sam Ganzfried

Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-24 Zhanxiang Hua , Ryan Sobash , David John Gagne , Yingkai Sha , Alexandra Anderson-Frey

The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Christina Mathieu , Katharina Hees , Roland Fried

Given the destructive impacts of tropical cyclones, it is critical to have a reliable system for cyclone intensity detection. Various techniques are available for this purpose, each with differing levels of accuracy. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Vikas Dwivedi

Large data-driven physics models like DeepMind's weather model GraphCast have empirically succeeded in parameterizing time operators for complex dynamical systems with an accuracy reaching or in some cases exceeding that of traditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-01 Theodore MacMillan , Nicholas T. Ouellette

Determining the location of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface circulation center -- "center-fixing" -- is a critical first step in the TC-forecasting process, affecting current/future estimates of track, intensity, and structure. Despite a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-13 Ryan Lagerquist , Galina Chirokova , Robert DeMaria , Mark DeMaria , Imme Ebert-Uphoff

Sequential tropical cyclone hazards--two tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in the same region within a short time--are becoming increasingly likely. This study investigates situational preparedness dynamics for six sequential TC…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-24 Tianle Duan , Qingchun Li , Fengxiu Zhang , Dazhi Xi , Ning Lin

The high dimensionality and complex dynamics of turbulent flows in urban street canyons present significant challenges for wind and environmental engineering, particularly in addressing air quality, pollutant dispersion, and extreme wind…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-01-24 Tomek Jaroslawski , Aakash Patil , Beverley McKeon

This study addresses a critical challenge in AI-based weather forecasting by developing an AI-driven optimized ensemble forecast system using Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations (O-CNOPs). The system bridges the gap…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-27 Yonghui Li , Wansuo Duan , Hao Li , Wei Han , Han Zhang , Yinuo Li

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Peter Grönquist , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Luca Lavarini , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

Tidal energy is one of the key components in increasing the penetration of renewable energy. High tidal energy penetration into the electrical grid depends on accurate tidal current speed forecasting. Model inaccuracies hinder forecast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Tengfei Cheng , Yangdi Huang , Ling Xiao , Yunxuan Dong

The past few years have witnessed the rapid development in multivariate time series forecasting. The key to accurate forecasting results is capturing the long-term dependency between each time step (cross-time dependency) and modeling the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Donghao Luo , Xue Wang

Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Zachary James , Joseph Guinness , Arthur DeGaetano

Convection (thunderstorm) develops rapidly within hours and is highly destructive, posing a significant challenge for nowcasting and resulting in substantial losses to infrastructure and society. After the emergence of artificial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Kuai Dai , Xutao Li , Junying Fang , Yunming Ye , Demin Yu , Hui Su , Di Xian , Danyu Qin , Jingsong Wang

In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-05-29 Alka Yadav , Sourish Das , Anirban Chakraborti