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Our collective understanding of azimuthally-asymmetric features within the coherent structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) continues to improve with the availability of more detailed observations and high-resolution model outputs. However, a…
The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…
Long-term stability and physical consistency are critical properties for AI-based weather models if they are going to be used for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts or beyond, e.g., climate change projection. However, current AI-based…
Numerical weather prediction models rely on parameterizations for subgrid-scale processes, e.g., for cloud microphysics. These parameterizations are a well-known source of uncertainty in weather forecasts that can be quantified via…
Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards posed by tropical cyclones (TCs), yet assessing its current and future risk is difficult due to the phenomenon's rarity and physical complexity. Recent advances in artificial intelligence…
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…
Understanding how droughts may change in the future is essential for anticipating and mitigating their adverse impacts. However, robust climate projections require large amounts of high-resolution climate simulations, particularly for…
Recent research has suggested that the overall dependence of convection near coasts on large-scale atmospheric conditions is weaker than over the open ocean or inland areas. This is due to the fact that in coastal regions convection is…
Lightning plays a crucial role in the Earth's climate system, yet existing parameterizations for use in forecasting and earth system models show room for improvement in capturing spatial and temporal variations in its frequency. This study…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of…
An important process in tropical cyclone formation is the development of a deep, warm core, which corresponds to the growth of a barotropic cyclone. Persistent convective activity is known to be crucial for the growth of barotropic…
Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…
Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature…
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEWs) dominate atmospheric variability on timescales of 2--30 days in the Tropics, bringing episodes of widespread heavy precipitation. This study compares the representation of CCEWs and their…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
Global climate models (GCMs), typically run at ~100-km resolution, capture large-scale environmental conditions but cannot resolve convection and cloud processes at kilometer scales. Convection-permitting models offer higher-resolution…
Genesis potential indices (GPIs) are widely used to understand the climatology of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the sign of projected future changes depends on how they incorporate environmental moisture. Recent theory combines…
In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are…