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Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a great challenge in operational forecasting and contributes significantly to the development of major TCs. RI is commonly defined as an increase in the maximum sustained…
Accurate short-term prediction of clouds and precipitation is critical for severe weather warnings, aviation safety, and renewable energy operations. Forecasts at this timescale are provided by numerical weather models and extrapolation…
Accurate prediction of tropical cyclones remains a major challenge for both numerical weather prediction and emerging artificial intelligence weather prediction systems. While recent global AI models have demonstrated strong skill in…
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…
An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…
A reliable tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is the key to assessing historical and future changes in TC activities. While global TC records have been systematically maintained since the early 1940s, substantial uncertainties remain for the…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive weather systems. Realistically and efficiently detecting and tracking TCs are critical for assessing their impacts and risks. Recently, a multilevel robustness framework has been…
Detecting extreme events in large datasets is a major challenge in climate science research. Current algorithms for extreme event detection are build upon human expertise in defining events based on subjective thresholds of relevant…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high…
Tropical cyclones are important drivers of coastal flooding which have severe negative public safety and economic consequences. Due to the rare occurrence of such events, high spatial and temporal resolution historical storm precipitation…
Tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories are governed by large-scale steering flows with sensitive dependence on initial conditions, raising the question of whether targeted perturbations can induce track deviations. We present a case study…
Understanding convective processes leading to severe weather hazards within Mediterranean cyclones is relevant for operational forecasters, insurance industry, and enhancing societal preparedness. In this work we examine the climatological…
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…
Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…
Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes…
During hurricane seasons, emergency managers and other decision makers need accurate and `on-time' information on potential storm surge impacts. Fully dynamical computer models, such as the ADCIRC tide, storm surge, and wind-wave model take…
Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…