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Throughout the analytical revolution that has occurred in the NBA, the development of specific metrics and formulas has given teams, coaches, and players a new way to see the game. However - the question arises - how can we verify any…
The National Basketball Association(NBA) has expanded their data gathering and have heavily invested in new technologies to gather advanced performance metrics on players. This expanded data set allows analysts to use unique performance…
The forecasting of sports events is of broad interest from the applied but also from the theoretical perspective. In this work the question is addressed for the example of the German soccer Bundesliga how a theoretically optimum forecast of…
Shooting location is a core indicator of offensive style in invasion sports. Existing basketball shot-chart analyses often use spatial information for descriptive visualization, location-based efficiency modeling, or clustering players into…
For some time, point-differential has been thought to be a better predictor for future NBA success than pure win-loss record. Most ranking and team performance predictions rely largely on point-differential, often with some normalizations…
We ask if there are alternative contest models that minimize error or information loss from misspecification and outperform the Pythagorean model. This article aims to use simulated data to select the optimal expected win percentage model…
The popularity of online gaming has grown dramatically, driven in part by streaming and the billion-dollar e-sports industry. Online games regularly update their software to fix bugs, add functionality that improve the game's look and feel,…
Professional baseball players are increasingly guaranteed expensive long-term contracts, with over 70 deals signed in excess of \$90 million, mostly in the last decade. These are substantial sums compared to a typical franchise valuation of…
The distance from a given position toward one or more destinations, exits, and way points is a more or less important input variable in most models of pedestrian dynamics. Except for the special case when there are no obstacles in a concave…
The Pythagorean Expected Wins Percentage Model was developed by Bill James to estimate a baseball team expected wins percentage over the course of a season. As such, the model can be used to assess how lucky or unfortunate a team was over…
In this paper we bring a novel approach to the theory of tournament rankings. We combine two different theories that are widely used to establish rankings of populations after a given tournament. First, we use the statistical approach of…
In basketball and hockey, state-of-the-art player value statistics are often variants of Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM). But APM hasn't had the same impact in soccer, since soccer games are low scoring with a low number of substitutions. In…
In a function that takes its inputs from various players, the effect of a player measures the variation he can cause in the expectation of that function. In this paper we prove a tight upper bound on the number of players with large effect,…
In an effort to better understand the different ways in which the discount factor affects the optimization process in reinforcement learning, we designed a set of experiments to study each effect in isolation. Our analysis reveals that the…
We provide scientific foundations for athletic performance prediction on an individual level, exposing the phenomenology of individual athletic running performance in the form of a low-rank model dominated by an individual power law. We…
Rainfall is a climatic factor that affects many human activities like agriculture, construction, and forestry. Rainfall is dependent on various meteorological features and its prediction is a very complex task due to the dynamic climatic…
Predicting athletes' performance has relied mostly on statistical data. Besides the traditional data, various types of data, including video, have become available. However, it is challenging to use them for deep learning, especially when…
It is challenging to get access to datasets related to the physical performance of soccer players. The teams consider such information highly confidential, especially if it covers in-game performance.Hence, most of the analysis and…
Count data play a crucial role in sports analytics, providing valuable insights into various aspects of the game. Models that accurately capture the characteristics of count data are essential for making reliable inferences. In this paper,…
We propose a model for recalculating the target score in rain affected matches based on empirical data. During the development of the current stage of the Cricket, different methods have been introduced to recalculate the target scores in…