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Soccer attracts the attention of many researchers and professionals in the sports industry. Therefore, the incorporation of science into the sport is constantly growing, with increasing investments in performance analysis and sports…
When $n$ teams play in a football league with home and away matches against every opponent there are $M = n \cdot (n-1)$ matches. There are 3 possible match results: a victory is awarded 3 points, a draw 1 point and 0 points for a defeat.…
Passing during power plays in hockey is a crucial component to move one's team closer to scoring a goal. With the use of women's ice hockey event and tracking data from the elimination round games during the 2022 Winter Olympics, we…
In recent years excessive monetization of football and professionalism among the players has been argued to have affected the quality of the match in different ways. On the one hand, playing football has become a high-income profession and…
One of the main shortcomings of event data in football, which has been extensively used for analytics in the recent years, is that it still requires manual collection, thus limiting its availability to a reduced number of tournaments. In…
Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) plays a critical role in analyzing player behavior from videos, enabling performance evaluation. Current MOT methods are often evaluated using publicly available datasets. However, most of these focus on everyday…
We can construct passing networks when we regard a player as a node and a pass as a link in football games. Thus, we can analyze the networks by using tools developed in network science. Among various metrics characterizing a network,…
Acting as a goalkeeper in a video-game, a participant is asked to predict the successive choices of the penalty taker. The sequence of choices of the penalty taker is generated by a stochastic chain with memory of variable length. It has…
We propose a bottom-up approach to the study of possession and its outcomes for association football, based on probabilistic finite state automata with transition probabilities described by a Markov process. We show how even a very simple…
For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe the game will end. The method we develop modifies…
Soccer analytics is attracting increasing interest in academia and industry, thanks to the availability of data that describe all the spatio-temporal events that occur in each match. These events (e.g., passes, shots, fouls) are collected…
When we test a theory using data, it is common to focus on correctness: do the predictions of the theory match what we see in the data? But we also care about completeness: how much of the predictable variation in the data is captured by…
Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…
In basketball, every time the offense produces a shot opportunity the player with the ball must decide whether the shot is worth taking. In this paper, I explore the question of when a team should shoot and when they should pass up the shot…
Change of direction is a key element of player movement in American football, yet there remains a lack of objective approaches for in-game performance evaluation of this athletic trait. Using tracking data, we propose a Bayesian…
The expected goal provides a more representative measure of the team and player performance which also suit the low-scoring nature of football instead of score in modern football. The score of a match involves randomness and often may not…
In two-player finite-state stochastic games of partial observation on graphs, in every state of the graph, the players simultaneously choose an action, and their joint actions determine a probability distribution over the successor states.…
Real-time probability forecasts for binary outcomes are routine in sports, online experimentation, medicine, and finance. Retrospective narratives, however, often hinge on pathwise extremes: for example, a forecast that becomes "90%…
The English Premier League is well-known for being not only one of the most popular professional sports leagues in the world, but also one of the toughest competitions to predict. The first purpose of this research was to verify the…
Consider an agent exploring an unknown graph in search of some goal state. As it walks around the graph, it learns the nodes and their neighbors. The agent only knows where the goal state is when it reaches it. How do we reach this goal…