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Trustworthy classifiers are essential to the adoption of machine learning predictions in many real-world settings. The predicted probability of possible outcomes can inform high-stakes decision making, particularly when assessing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Kiri L. Wagstaff , Thomas G. Dietterich

Formulating accurate and robust classification strategies is a key challenge of developing diagnostic and antibody tests. Methods that do not explicitly account for disease prevalence and uncertainty therein can lead to significant…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Paul N. Patrone , Anthony J. Kearsley

Classifiers learnt from data are increasingly being used as components in systems where safety is a critical concern. In this work, we present a formal notion of safety for classifiers via constraints called safe-ordering constraints. These…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Klas Leino , Aymeric Fromherz , Ravi Mangal , Matt Fredrikson , Bryan Parno , Corina Păsăreanu

Classification models are very sensitive to data uncertainty, and finding robust classifiers that are less sensitive to data uncertainty has raised great interest in the machine learning literature. This paper aims to construct robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-01 Vali Asimit , Ioannis Kyriakou , Simone Santoni , Salvatore Scognamiglio , Rui Zhu

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Size-constrained clustering (SCC) refers to the dual problem of using observations to determine latent cluster structure while at the same time assigning observations to the unknown clusters subject to an analyst defined constraint on…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-18 Justin D. Silverman , Rachel K. Silverman

Selective classification (or classification with a reject option) pairs a classifier with a selection function to determine whether or not a prediction should be accepted. This framework trades off coverage (probability of accepting a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Andrea Pugnana , Salvatore Ruggieri

Economic models produce moment inequalities, which can be used to form tests of the true parameters. Confidence sets (CS) of the true parameters are derived by inverting these tests. However, they often lack analytical expressions,…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-14 Lujie Zhou

Consider an ensemble of $k$ individual classifiers whose accuracies are known. Upon receiving a test point, each of the classifiers outputs a predicted label and a confidence in its prediction for this particular test point. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Sascha Meyen , Frieder Göppert , Helen Alber , Ulrike von Luxburg , Volker H. Franz

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-20 Juozas Vaicenavicius , David Widmann , Carl Andersson , Fredrik Lindsten , Jacob Roll , Thomas B. Schön

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jesse C. Cresswell , Bhargava Kumar , Yi Sui , Mouloud Belbahri

One-class classification (OCC) algorithms aim to build classification models when the negative class is either absent, poorly sampled or not well defined. This unique situation constrains the learning of efficient classifiers by defining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-05 Shehroz S. Khan , Michael G. Madden

Sequence classification is an important data mining task in many real world applications. Over the past few decades, many sequence classification methods have been proposed from different aspects. In particular, the pattern-based method is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-15 Zengyou He , Guangyao Xu , Chaohua Sheng , Bo Xu , Quan Zou

Classifiers are often tested on relatively small data sets, which should lead to uncertain performance metrics. Nevertheless, these metrics are usually taken at face value. We present an approach to quantify the uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-05 Niklas Tötsch , Daniel Hoffmann

Rule based classifiers that use the presence and absence of key sub-strings to make classification decisions have a natural mechanism for quantifying the uncertainty of their precision. For a binary classifier, the key insight is to treat…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-20 James Nutaro , Ozgur Ozmen

Many selection processes such as finding patients qualifying for a medical trial or retrieval pipelines in search engines consist of multiple stages, where an initial screening stage focuses the resources on shortlisting the most promising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Lequn Wang , Thorsten Joachims , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Classification is one of the most popular and widely used supervised learning tasks, which categorizes objects into predefined classes based on known knowledge. Classification has been an important research topic in machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Jian-Ping Mei , Chee-Keong Kwoh , Peng Yang , Xiao-Li Li