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Related papers: Uncertainty Propagation Using Hybrid Methods

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A new multifidelity method is developed for nonlinear orbit uncertainty propagation. This approach guarantees improved computational efficiency and limited accuracy losses compared to fully high-fidelity counterparts. The initial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-30 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Matteo Losacco , Francesco Sanfedino

The Simplified General Perturbations 4 (SGP4) orbital propagation method is widely used for predicting the positions and velocities of Earth-orbiting objects rapidly and reliably. Despite continuous refinement, SGP models still lack the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-22 Giacomo Acciarini , Atılım Güneş Baydin , Dario Izzo

Accurate propagation of orbital uncertainty is essential for a range of applications within space domain awareness. Adaptive Gaussian mixture-based approaches offer tractable nonlinear uncertainty propagation through splitting mixands to…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-30 G. Andrew Siciliano , Keith A. LeGrand , Jackson Kulik

A multifidelity method for the nonlinear propagation of uncertainties in the presence of stochastic accelerations is presented. The proposed algorithm treats the uncertainty propagation (UP) problem by separating the propagation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Francesco Sanfedino

A hybrid orbit propagator based on the analytical integration of the Kepler problem is designed to determine the future position and velocity of any orbiter, usually an artificial satellite or space debris fragment, in two steps: an initial…

In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or…

Space Physics · Physics 2016-05-31 Juan Félix San-Juan , Montserrat San-Martín , Iván Pérez , Rosario López

Fast and precise propagation of satellite orbits is required for mission design, orbit determination and payload data analysis. We present a method to improve the computational performance of numerical propagators and simultaneously…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2021-04-06 Roberto Flores , Burhani Makame Burhani , Elena Fantino

Fast and precise propagation of satellite orbits is required for mission design, orbit determination in support of operations and payload data analysis. This demand must also comply with the different accuracy requirements set by a growing…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2020-07-07 Elena Fantinoa , Roberto Flores , Amna Adheem

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites are leveraged to support new position, navigation, and timing (PNT) service alternatives to GNSS. These alternatives require accurate propagation of satellite position and velocity with a realistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Alex Moody , Penina Axelrad , Rebecca Russell

Many problems in navigation and tracking require increasingly accurate characterizations of the evolution of uncertainty in nonlinear systems. Nonlinear uncertainty propagation approaches based on Gaussian mixture density approximations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-30 Jackson Kulik , Keith A. LeGrand

Two-Line Elements (TLEs) continue to be the sole public source of orbiter observations. The accuracy of TLE propagations through the Simplified General Perturbations-4 (SGP4) software decreases dramatically as the propagation horizon…

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given…

Performance · Computer Science 2012-06-07 Yanfu Li , Enrico Zio

This paper presents an algorithm for the preprocessing of observation data aimed at improving the robustness of orbit determination tools. Two objectives are fulfilled: obtain a refined solution to the initial orbit determination problem…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Matteo Losacco , Francesco Sanfedino

This paper presents a novel approach for propagating uncertainties in dynamical systems building on high-order Taylor expansions of the flow and moment-generating functions (MGFs). Unlike prior methods that focus on Gaussian distributions,…

Space Physics · Physics 2025-04-08 Giacomo Acciarini , Nicola Baresi , David Lloyd , Dario Izzo

This paper introduces a global uncertainty propagation scheme for rigid body dynamics, through a combination of numerical parametric uncertainty techniques, noncommutative harmonic analysis, and geometric numerical integration. This method…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2008-03-12 Taeyoung Lee , Melvin Leok , N. Harris McClamroch

State estimation for hybrid systems that undergo intermittent contact with their environments, such as extraplanetary robots and satellites undergoing docking operations, is difficult due to the discrete uncertainty propagation during…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Karthik Shaji , Sreeranj Jayadevan , Bo Yuan , Hongzhe Yu , Yongxin Chen

Coupled partial differential equation (PDE) systems, which often represent multi-physics models, are naturally suited for modular numerical solution methods. However, several challenges yet remain in extending the benefits of modularization…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-10-21 Akshay Mittal , Gianluca Iaccarino

This paper describes the most accurate analytical frequentist assessment to date of the uncertainties in the estimation of physical parameters from gravitational waves generated by non spinning binary systems and Earth-based networks of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2013-05-29 Salvatore Vitale , Michele Zanolin

Assessing the validity of a real-world system with respect to given quality criteria is a common yet costly task in industrial applications due to the vast number of required real-world tests. Validating such systems by means of simulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-06 David Reeb , Kanil Patel , Karim Barsim , Martin Schiegg , Sebastian Gerwinn

This paper presents a unified framework for uncertainty propagation in dynamical systems involving hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The framework accommodates precise probabilistic, imprecise probabilistic, and non-probabilistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-12 Yi Luo , Meng-Ze Lyu , Matteo Broggi , Marko Thiele , Vasileios C. Fragkoulis , Michael Beer
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