Related papers: Uncertainty Propagation Using Hybrid Methods
Several numerical approximation strategies for the expectation-propagation algorithm are studied in the context of large-scale learning: the Laplace method, a faster variant of it, Gaussian quadrature, and a deterministic version of…
For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space situational awareness activities such as the satellite conjunction…
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guaranties for regression; yet existing methods assume Euclidean output spaces and produce prediction regions that are poorly calibrated when responses lie on Riemannian manifolds. We…
A general method is presented for estimating the uncertainty in hybrid models of gravitational waveforms from binary black-hole systems with arbitrary physical parameters, and thence the highest allowable initial orbital frequency for a…
Uncertainty propagation in non-linear dynamical systems has become a key problem in various fields including control theory and machine learning. In this work we focus on discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems. We present a…
Most approximations for stochastic differential equations with high-dimensional, non-Gaussian inputs suffer from a rapid (e.g., exponential) increase of computational cost, an issue known as the curse of dimensionality. In astrodynamics,…
Gauss's method of orbit determination (OD) and its variants are among the most popular initial state estimation techniques for astronomers and engineers alike. However, owing to its assumptions regarding the two-body problem, Gauss's method…
General Stochastic Hybrid Systems (GSHS) have been formulated to represent various types of uncertainties in hybrid dynamical systems. In this paper, we propose computational techniques for Bayesian estimation of GSHS. In particular, the…
Employing Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (SNMPC) for real-time applications is challenging due to the complex task of propagating uncertainties through nonlinear systems. This difficulty becomes more pronounced in…
Estimating the 3DoF rotation from a single RGB image is an important yet challenging problem. As a popular approach, probabilistic rotation modeling additionally carries prediction uncertainty information, compared to single-prediction…
This paper proposes a hybrid Gaussian process (GP) approach to robust economic model predictive control under unknown future disturbances in order to reduce the conservatism of the controller. The proposed hybrid GP is a combination of two…
This paper is related to our previous works [1][2] on the error estimate of the averaging technique, for systems with one fast angular variable. In the cited references, a general method (of mixed analytical and numerical type) has been…
High-probability analysis of stochastic first-order optimization methods under mild assumptions on the noise has been gaining a lot of attention in recent years. Typically, gradient clipping is one of the key algorithmic ingredients to…
Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…
Spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are popular and flexible models for non-Gaussian spatial data. They are useful for spatial interpolations as well as for fitting regression models that account for spatial dependence, and are…
This paper addresses the limitations of standard uncertainty models, e.g., robust (norm-bounded) and stochastic (one fixed distribution, e.g., Gaussian), and proposes to model uncertainty via Optimal Transport (OT) ambiguity sets. These…
Macroscopically heterogeneous materials, characterised mostly by comparable heterogeneity lengthscale and structural sizes, can no longer be modelled by deterministic approach instead. It is convenient to introduce stochastic approach with…
In this paper we derive the equations for Loop Corrected Belief Propagation on a continuous variable Gaussian model. Using the exactness of the averages for belief propagation for Gaussian models, a different way of obtaining the…
Likelihood surfaces in the parameter space of gravitational wave signals can contain many secondary maxima, which can prevent search algorithms from finding the global peak and correctly mapping the distribution. Traditional schemes to…
A novel method to propagate uncertainty through the soft-thresholding nonlinearity is proposed in this paper. At every layer the current distribution of the target vector is represented as a spike and slab distribution, which represents the…