Related papers: PAC Mode Estimation using PPR Martingale Confidenc…

We consider the problem of predictive monitoring (PM), i.e., predicting at runtime the satisfaction of a desired property from the current system's state. Due to its relevance for runtime safety assurance and online control, PM methods need…

Statistical procedures rarely retain all features of the observed data. A sufficient statistic removes information irrelevant to a parameter; a maximum likelihood estimate compresses an empirical objective into an optimizing point; and a…

Motivated by applications of large embedding models, we study differentially private (DP) optimization problems under sparsity of individual gradients. We start with new near-optimal bounds for the classic mean estimation problem but with…

We develop a method based on martingales to study first-passage problems of time-additive observables exiting an interval of finite width in a Markov process. In the limit that the interval width is large, we derive generic expressions for…

Compared to the wide array of advanced Monte Carlo methods supported by modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), PPL support for variational inference (VI) is less developed: users are typically limited to a predefined selection…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

In this paper we propose a new method of estimation for discrete choice demand models when individual level data are available. The method employs a two-step procedure. Step 1 predicts the choice probabilities as functions of the observed…

Reliable experimental demonstrations of violations of local realism are highly desirable for fundamental tests of quantum mechanics. One can quantify the violation witnessed by an experiment in terms of a statistical p-value, which can be…

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

This paper addresses the task of estimating a covariance matrix under a patternless sparsity assumption. In contrast to existing approaches based on thresholding or shrinkage penalties, we propose a likelihood-based method that regularizes…

Predictive recursion (PR) is a fast stochastic algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing distributions in mixture models. It is known that the PR estimates of both the mixing and mixture densities are consistent under fairly mild…

Many model selection algorithms produce a path of fits specifying a sequence of increasingly complex models. Given such a sequence and the data used to produce them, we consider the problem of choosing the least complex model that is not…

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

We study upper and lower bounds on the sample-complexity of learning near-optimal behaviour in finite-state discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). For the upper bound we make the assumption that each action leads to at most two…

We study the problem of learning exponential distributions under differential privacy. Given $n$ i.i.d.\ samples from $\mathrm{Exp}(\lambda)$, the goal is to privately estimate $\lambda$ so that the learned distribution is close in total…

PAC-Bayesian set up involves a stochastic classifier characterized by a posterior distribution on a classifier set, offers a high probability bound on its averaged true risk and is robust to the training sample used. For a given posterior,…

We propose an adaptive sequential framework for testing two simple hypotheses that analytically ensures finite exposure to the less effective treatment. Our proposed procedure employs a likelihood ratio-driven adaptive allocation rule,…

We consider the problem of approximate belief-state monitoring using particle filtering for the purposes of implementing a policy for a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP). While particle filtering has become a widely-used…

We propose an empirical method for identifying low damped modes and corresponding mode shapes using frequency measurements from a Wide Area Monitoring System. The method consists of two main steps: Firstly, Complex Principal Component…

We present a model predictive control (MPC) framework for nonlinear stochastic systems that ensures safety guarantee with high probability. Unlike most existing stochastic MPC schemes, our method adopts a set-erosion that converts the…