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Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful paradigm for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Traditional BO methods typically rely on separate hand-crafted acquisition functions and surrogate models for the underlying function, and often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Fengxue Zhang , Yuxin Chen

We consider the problem of sequentially maximizing an unknown function $f$ over a set of actions of the form $(s,\mathbf{x})$, where the selected actions must satisfy a safety constraint with respect to an unknown safety function $g$. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-06 Arpan Losalka , Jonathan Scarlett

In the secretary problem of Cayley (1875) and Moser (1956), $n$ non-negative, independent, random variables with common distribution are sequentially presented to a decision maker who decides when to stop and collect the most recent…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-22 Alessandro Arlotto , Itai Gurvich

We develop a new framework for designing online policies given access to an oracle providing statistical information about an offline benchmark. Having access to such prediction oracles enables simple and natural Bayesian selection…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-02-28 Alberto Vera , Siddhartha Banerjee

We study the problem of preferential Bayesian optimization (BO), where we aim to optimize a black-box function with only preference feedback over a pair of candidate solutions. Inspired by the likelihood ratio idea, we construct a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Wenjie Xu , Wenbin Wang , Yuning Jiang , Bratislav Svetozarevic , Colin N. Jones

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale estimation and inference in the Poisson means problem. Existing results establish theoretical properties of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) for optimal posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Taehyun Kim

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Aadirupa Saha , Branislav Kveton

In this work, we investigate black-box optimization from the perspective of frequentist kernel methods. We propose a novel batch optimization algorithm, which jointly maximizes the acquisition function and select points from a whole batch…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-30 Yueming Lyu , Yuan Yuan , Ivor W. Tsang

Stochastic linear bandits are a fundamental model for sequential decision making, where an agent selects a vector-valued action and receives a noisy reward with expected value given by an unknown linear function. Although well studied in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Bruce Huang , Ruida Zhou , Lin F. Yang , Suhas Diggavi

The expected improvement (EI) algorithm is one of the most popular strategies for optimization under uncertainty due to its simplicity and efficiency. Despite its popularity, the theoretical aspects of this algorithm have not been properly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Hung Tran-The , Sunil Gupta , Santu Rana , Svetha Venkatesh

We introduce a unified framework for contextual and causal Bayesian optimisation, which aims to design intervention policies maximising the expectation of a target variable. Our approach leverages both observed contextual information and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Vahan Arsenyan , Antoine Grosnit , Haitham Bou-Ammar , Arnak Dalalyan

We study the repeated optimal stopping problem, in which the same optimal stopping instance with an unknown distribution is solved repeatedly over $T$ rounds. We aim to simultaneously achieve strong per-round performance guarantees relative…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Tsubasa Harada , Yasushi Kawase , Hanna Sumita

We develop a Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (NEB) framework for compound estimation in the discrete linear exponential family, which includes a wide class of discrete distributions frequently arising from modern big data applications. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-24 Trambak Banerjee , Qiang Liu , Gourab Mukherjee , Wenguang Sun

Bayesian optimization (BO) with preference-based feedback has recently garnered significant attention due to its emerging applications. We refer to this problem as Bayesian Optimization from Human Feedback (BOHF), which differs from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Aya Kayal , Sattar Vakili , Laura Toni , Da-shan Shiu , Alberto Bernacchia

Building on the framework introduced by Xu and Raginksy [1] for supervised learning problems, we study the best achievable performance for model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning problems. With this purpose, we define minimum Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Amaury Gouverneur , Borja Rodríguez-Gálvez , Tobias J. Oechtering , Mikael Skoglund

Expected improvement (EI) is one of the most widely used acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization (BO). Despite its proven empirical success in applications, the cumulative regret upper bound of EI remains an open question. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-22 Jingyi Wang , Haowei Wang , Szu Hui Ng , Cosmin G. Petra

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-23 Dimitris Korobilis , Kenichi Shimizu

We extend the work of Hahn and Carvalho (2015) and develop a doubly-regularized sparse regression estimator by synthesizing Bayesian regularization with penalized least squares within a decision-theoretic framework. In contrast to existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Aihua Li , Surya T. Tokdar , Jason Xu

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel