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Bayesian persuasion, an extension of cheap-talk communication, involves an informed sender committing to a signaling scheme to influence a receiver's actions. Compared to cheap talk, this sender's commitment enables the receiver to verify…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Yue Lin , Shuhui Zhu , William A Cunningham , Wenhao Li , Pascal Poupart , Hongyuan Zha , Baoxiang Wang

Estimating mutual information between continuous random variables is often intractable and extremely challenging for high-dimensional data. Recent progress has leveraged neural networks to optimize variational lower bounds on mutual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Ruizhi Liao , Daniel Moyer , Polina Golland , William M. Wells

Bayesian probability theory is used as a framework to develop a formalism for the scientific method based on principles of inductive reasoning. The formalism allows for precise definitions of the key concepts in theories of physics and also…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-09-12 Roberto C. Alamino

Inverse analysis, such as model calibration, often suffers from a lack of informative data in complex real-world scenarios. The standard remedy, designing new experimental setups, is often costly and time-consuming, while readily available…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Lea J. Haeusel , Jonas Nitzler , Lea J. Köglmeier , Wolfgang A. Wall

We propose a novel framework for measuring privacy from a Bayesian game-theoretic perspective. This framework enables the creation of new, purpose-driven privacy definitions that are rigorously justified, while also allowing for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Joshua J Bon , James Bailie , Judith Rousseau , Christian P Robert

Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice. One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer models of the likelihood-to-evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Giulio Isacchini , Natanael Spisak , Armita Nourmohammad , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak

We present a Bayesian methodology for infinite as well as finite dimensional parameter identification for partial differential equation models. The Bayesian framework provides a rigorous mathematical framework for incorporating prior…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-05-17 Eduard Campillo-Funollet , Chandrasekhar Venkataraman , Anotida Madzvamuse

We derive a well-defined renormalized version of mutual information that allows to estimate the dependence between continuous random variables in the important case when one is deterministically dependent on the other. This is the situation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-26 Leopoldo Sarra , Andrea Aiello , Florian Marquardt

Several scenarios require the optimization of non-convex black-box functions, that are noisy expensive to evaluate functions with unknown analytical expression, whose gradients are hence not accessible. For example, the hyper-parameter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán

Bayesian persuasion, a central model in information design, studies how a sender, who privately observes a state drawn from a prior distribution, strategically sends a signal to influence a receiver's action. A key assumption is that both…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Jingwu Tang , Jiahao Zhang , Fei Fang , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter

We describe algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from a combination of user knowledge and statistical data. The algorithms have two components: a scoring metric and a search procedure. The scoring metric takes a network structure,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 David Heckerman , Dan Geiger , David Maxwell Chickering

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

We introduce a new mathematical framework for the probabilistic description of an experiment on a system of any type in terms of information representing this system initially. Based on the notions of an information state and a generalized…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Elena R. Loubenets

Many recent methods for unsupervised or self-supervised representation learning train feature extractors by maximizing an estimate of the mutual information (MI) between different views of the data. This comes with several immediate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-24 Michael Tschannen , Josip Djolonga , Paul K. Rubenstein , Sylvain Gelly , Mario Lucic

The use of Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in the model selection procedure is under the assumption that the observations are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, in practice, we do not always have i.i.d. samples.…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-03 Nan Shen , Bárbara González

We consider Bayesian optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box objective function, where we also have access to cheaper approximations of the objective. In general, such approximations arise in applications such as reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-16 Matthias Poloczek , Jialei Wang , Peter I. Frazier

We propose a novel approach to the problem of mutual information (MI) estimation via introducing a family of estimators based on normalizing flows. The estimator maps original data to the target distribution, for which MI is easier to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Ivan Butakov , Alexander Tolmachev , Sofia Malanchuk , Anna Neopryatnaya , Alexey Frolov

We provide an information-theoretic framework for studying the generalization properties of machine learning algorithms. Our framework ties together existing approaches, including uniform convergence bounds and recent methods for adaptive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Thomas Steinke , Lydia Zakynthinou

Agents that interact with other agents often do not know a priori what the other agents' strategies are, but have to maximise their own online return while interacting with and learning about others. The optimal adaptive behaviour under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-19 Luisa Zintgraf , Sam Devlin , Kamil Ciosek , Shimon Whiteson , Katja Hofmann