Related papers: Stochastic frailty models for modeling and forecas…
A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…
Frailty and resilience models provide a way to introduce random effects in hazard and reversed hazard rate modeling by random variables, called frailty and resilience random variables, respectively, to account for unobserved or unexplained…
Frailty models are often the model of choice for heterogeneous survival data. A frailty model contains both random effects and fixed effects, with the random effects accommodating for the correlation in the data. Different estimation…
Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader…
Undoubtedly, several countries worldwide endure to experience a continuous increase in life expectancy, extending the challenges of life actuaries and demographers in forecasting mortality. Although several stochastic mortality models have…
Various stochastic models have been proposed to estimate mortality rates. In this paper we illustrate how machine learning techniques allow us to analyze the quality of such mortality models. In addition, we present how these techniques can…
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
Many existing mortality models follow the framework of classical factor models, such as the Lee-Carter model and its variants. Latent common factors in factor models are defined as time-related mortality indices (such as $\kappa_t$ in the…
This work presents a new model and estimation procedure for the illness-death survival data where the hazard functions follow accelerated failure time (AFT) models. A shared frailty variate induces positive dependence among failure times of…
In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
In this article we investigate a state-space representation of the Lee-Carter model which is a benchmark stochastic mortality model for forecasting age-specific death rates. Existing relevant literature focuses mainly on mortality…
To explore the mechanistic relationships between ageing, frailty and mortality, we developed a computational model in which possible health attributes are represented by the nodes of a complex network. Each node can be either damaged (i.e.…
\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…
In this paper, we suggest a novel method for detecting mortality deceleration. We focus on the gamma-Gompertz frailty model and suggest the subtraction of a penalty in the log-likelihood function as an alternative to traditional likelihood…
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener…
Frailty models are essential tools in survival analysis for addressing unobserved heterogeneity and random effects in the data. These models incorporate a random effect, the frailty, which is assumed to impact the hazard rate…
The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…