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We develop a new method to find the number of volatility regimes in a nonstationary financial time series by applying unsupervised learning to its volatility structure. We use change point detection to partition a time series into locally…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-15 Arjun Prakash , Nick James , Max Menzies , Gilad Francis

We show how clustering standard errors in one or more dimensions can be justified in M-estimation when there is sampling or assignment uncertainty. Since existing procedures for variance estimation are either conservative or invalid, we…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-21 Ruonan Xu , Luther Yap

We propose a new unsupervised learning method for clustering a large number of time series based on a latent factor structure. Each cluster is characterized by its own cluster-specific factors in addition to some common factors which impact…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-09 Bo Zhang , Guangming Pan , Qiwei Yao , Wang Zhou

We introduce circulance, a scalar measure for classifying time series of dynamical systems. Circulance captures the extent of temporal regularity or irregularity that is encoded in the topology of a directed ordinal pattern transition…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-05 Max Potratzki , Manuel Adams , Timo Bröhl , Klaus Lehnertz

Cluster analysis has attracted more and more attention in the field of machine learning and data mining. Numerous clustering algorithms have been proposed and are being developed due to diverse theories and various requirements of emerging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-18 Jian Yu , Zongben Xu

Periodic orbits in chaotic systems form clusters, whose elements traverse approximately the same points of the phase space. The distribution of cluster sizes depends on the length n of orbits and the parameter p which controls closeness of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-15 Boris Gutkin , Vladimir Al. Osipov

A central limit theorem is established for a sum of random variables belonging to a sequence of random fields. The fields are assumed to have zero mean conditional on the past history and to satisfy certain conditional $\alpha$-mixing…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-17 Abdollah Jalilian , Arnaud Poinas , Ganggang Xu , Rasmus Waagepetersen

We investigate the estimation of multivariate extreme models with a discrete spectral measure using spherical clustering techniques. The primary contribution involves devising a method for selecting the order, that is, the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-20 Shiyuan Deng , He Tang , Shuyang Bai

A commonly used characteristic of statistical dependence of adjacency relations in real networks, the clustering coefficient, evaluates chances that two neighbours of a given vertex are adjacent. An extension is obtained by considering…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-29 Mindaugas Bloznelis , Valentas Kurauskas

Policy-makers are often faced with the task of distributing a limited supply of resources. To support decision-making in these settings, statisticians are confronted with two challenges: estimands are defined by allocation strategies that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Aaron L. Sarvet , Julien D. Laurendeau , Mats J. Stensrud

There exist several methods developed for the canonical change point problem of detecting multiple mean shifts, which search for changes over sections of the data at multiple scales. In such methods, estimation of the noise level is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-07 Euan T. McGonigle , Haeran Cho

We consider a borderline case: the central limit theorem for a strictly stationary time series with infinite variance but a Gaussian limit. In the iid case a well-known sufficient condition for this central limit theorem is regular…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-24 Muneya Matsui , Thomas Mikosch

This paper builds the clustering model of measures of market microstructure features which are popular in predicting stock returns. In a 10-second time-frequency, we study the clustering structure of different measures to find out the best…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-28 Liao Zhu , Ningning Sun , Martin T. Wells

Consider unsupervised clustering of objects drawn from a discrete set, through the use of human intelligence available in crowdsourcing platforms. This paper defines and studies the problem of universal clustering using responses of crowd…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2016-10-11 Ravi Kiran Raman , Lav Varshney

It is common when using cross-section or panel data to assign each observation to a cluster and allow for arbitrary patterns of heteroskedasticity and correlation within clusters. For regression models, there are many ways to make…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-03 James G. MacKinnon

This paper studies inference for quadratic forms of linear regression coefficients with clustered data and many covariates. Our framework covers three important special cases: instrumental variables regression with many instruments and…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-18 Michal Kolesár , Pengjin Min , Wenjie Wang , Yichong Zhang

Roughly speaking, clustering evolving networks aims at detecting structurally dense subgroups in networks that evolve over time. This implies that the subgroups we seek for also evolve, which results in many additional tasks compared to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-01-16 Tanja Hartmann , Andrea Kappes , Dorothea Wagner

This paper describes an approach to simultaneously identify clusters and estimate cluster-specific regression parameters from the given data. Such an approach can be useful in learning the relationship between input and output when the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-02 Udai Nagpal , Krishan Nagpal

Graph clustering is a central topic in unsupervised learning with a multitude of practical applications. In recent years, multi-view graph clustering has gained a lot of attention for its applicability to real-world instances where one has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Vincent Cohen-Addad , Tommaso d'Orsi , Silvio Lattanzi , Rajai Nasser

The cluster analysis of very large objects is an important problem, which spans several theoretical as well as applied branches of mathematics and computer science. Here we suggest a novel approach: under assumption of local convergence of…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2015-10-28 Jaroslav Nesetril , Patrice Ossona de Mendez
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