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The entropic risk measure is widely used in high-stakes decision-making across economics, management science, finance, and safety-critical control systems because it captures tail risks associated with uncertain losses. However, when data…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic economic model predictive control (SEMPC) that minimizes average economic cost while satisfying an empirical expected shortfall (EES) constraint to manage risk. A new scenario-based problem…
Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…
In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal reinsurance design, when the risk is measured by a distortion risk measure and the premium is given by a distortion risk premium. First, we show how the optimal reinsurance design for the…
Value at risk and expected shortfall are increasingly popular tail risk measures in the financial risk management field. Both academia and financial institutions are working to improve tail risk forecasts in order to meet the requirements…
Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure,…
Expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail below (or above) a certain quantile of a probability distribution. Expected shortfall regression provides powerful tools for learning the relationship between a response variable…
Investors who optimize their portfolios under any of the coherent risk measures are naturally led to regularized portfolio optimization when they take into account the impact their trades make on the market. We show here that the impact…
We address the problem of estimating the expected shortfall risk of a financial loss using a finite number of i.i.d. data. It is well known that the classical plug-in estimator suffers from poor statistical performance when faced with…
We consider the combination of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) forecasts when a large pool of candidate forecasts is available. Given the limited literature in this area, we implement a variety of new combining methods. In…
We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator for high-dimensional models of Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimator is obtained as the solution to a least-squares problem for an auxiliary dependent variable, which is defined as a…
A risk analyst assesses potential financial losses based on multiple sources of information. Often, the assessment does not only depend on the specification of the loss random variable but also various economic scenarios. Motivated by this…
Risk aversion and insurance are two prominent and interconnected concepts in economics and finance. To explore their fundamental connection, we introduce risk-insurance parity, which associates various classes of insurance contracts with…
In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR's limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses…
Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their subjective risk-aversion. This paper examines spectral risk measures based on an exponential utility function, and finds…
A classical result in risk measure theory states that every coherent risk measure has a dual representation as the supremum of certain expected value over a risk envelope. We study this topic in more detail. The related issues include: 1.…
Expected shortfall (ES), also known as conditional value-at-risk, is a widely recognized risk measure that complements value-at-risk by capturing tail-related risks more effectively. Compared with quantile regression, which has been…
We propose forecast encompassing tests for the Expected Shortfall (ES) jointly with the Value at Risk (VaR) based on flexible link (or combination) functions. Our setup allows testing encompassing for convex forecast combinations and for…
It is well-known that Excess-of-Loss reinsurance has more marketability than Stop-Loss reinsurance, though Stop-Loss reinsurance is the most prominent setting discussed in the optimal (re)insurance design literature. We point out that…
As the developed world replaces Defined Benefit (DB) pension plans with Defined Contribution (DC) plans, there is a need to develop decumulation strategies for DC plan holders. Optimal decumulation can be viewed as a problem in optimal…