Related papers: Statistical Challenges in Tracking the Evolution o…
In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel…
Interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and the immune system during infection are complex. However, understanding the within-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics is of enormous importance, especially when it comes to assessing treatment options. Mathematical…
The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most…
Given the urgent informational needs connected with the diffusion of infection with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, in this paper, we propose a sampling design for building a continuous-time surveillance system. Compared with other…
We estimate the reduction in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 achievable by surveillance testing of a susceptible population at different frequencies, comparing the cases of both the original Wuhan strain and the Delta variant. We estimate the…
The widely used gene quantisation technique, Lateral Flow Device (LFD), is now commonly used to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2. It is enabling the control and prevention of the spread of the virus. Depending on the viral load, LFD have…
The recent SARS-COV-2 virus outbreak has created an unprecedented global health crisis! The disease is showing alarming trends with the number of people getting infected with this disease, new cases and death rate are all highlighting the…
The genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has caused recurring epidemic waves, understanding its global dispersal patterns is critical for effective surveillance. We developed the Site-based mutation dynamics - Equal Power Sampling (S-EPS)…
Mechanistic models fit to streaming surveillance data are critical to understanding the transmission dynamics of an outbreak as it unfolds in real-time. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, community containment measures have been implemented in different parts of the world. However, despite government recommendations and mandates, a progressive increase in mobility was observed in several sites.…
As the major target of many vaccines and neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the spike (S) protein is observed to mutate over time. In this paper, we present statistical approaches to tackle some challenges associated with the…
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the causative agent of the current global COVID-19 pandemic, in which millions of lives have been lost. Understanding the zoonotic evolution of the coronavirus may provide…
At the end of 2020, policy responses to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak have been shaken by the emergence of virus variants. The emergence of these more contagious, more severe, or even vaccine-resistant strains have challenged worldwide policy…
The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak changed the everyday life of almost all the people over the world.Currently, we are facing with the problem of containing the spread of the virus both using the more effective forced lockdown, which has the drawback…
With the unprecedented global vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 attention has now turned to the potential impact of this large-scale intervention on the evolution of the virus. In this perspective we summarize what is currently known…
Mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread are used for guiding the design of mitigation steps aimed at containing and decelerating the contagion, and at identifying impending breaches of health care system surge capacity. The challenges of…
Background: Global viral threats underscore the need for effective genomic surveillance, but high costs and uneven resource distribution hamper its implementation. Targeting surveillance to international travelers in major travel hubs may…
Despite the availability of effective vaccines, the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 suggests that co-circulation with other pathogens and resulting multi-epidemics may become increasingly frequent. To better forecast and control the risk of such…
The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented amount of sequence data of the SARS-CoV-2 genome -- millions of sequences and counting. This amount of data, while being orders of magnitude beyond the capacity of…
We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the…