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A recent trend of fair machine learning is to define fairness as causality-based notions which concern the causal connection between protected attributes and decisions. However, one common challenge of all causality-based fairness notions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Yongkai Wu , Lu Zhang , Xintao Wu , Hanghang Tong

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-12 Pirmin Lemberger , Antoine Saillenfest

It is commonly believed that, in a real-world environment, samples can only be drawn from observational and interventional distributions, corresponding to Layers 1 and 2 of the Pearl Causal Hierarchy. Layer 3, representing counterfactual…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Arvind Raghavan , Elias Bareinboim

Causal approaches to fairness have seen substantial recent interest, both from the machine learning community and from wider parties interested in ethical prediction algorithms. In no small part, this has been due to the fact that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-17 Niki Kilbertus , Philip J. Ball , Matt J. Kusner , Adrian Weller , Ricardo Silva

Fair machine learning aims to avoid treating individuals or sub-populations unfavourably based on \textit{sensitive attributes}, such as gender and race. Those methods in fair machine learning that are built on causal inference ascertain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Aoqi Zuo , Susan Wei , Tongliang Liu , Bo Han , Kun Zhang , Mingming Gong

Estimating joint distributions (a.k.a. couplings) over counterfactual outcomes is central to personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment. Two emergent frameworks with identifiability guarantees are: (i) bijective structural…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-26 Hugh Dance , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

Due to the increasing use of machine learning in practice it becomes more and more important to be able to explain the prediction and behavior of machine learning models. An instance of explanations are counterfactual explanations which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-19 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Counterfactual reasoning -- envisioning hypothetical scenarios, or possible worlds, where some circumstances are different from what (f)actually occurred (counter-to-fact) -- is ubiquitous in human cognition. Conventionally,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Julius von Kügelgen , Abdirisak Mohamed , Sander Beckers

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

Machine learning models that operate on graph-structured data, such as molecular graphs or social networks, often make accurate predictions but offer little insight into why certain predictions are made. Counterfactual explanations address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 David Bechtoldt , Sidney Bender

Counterfactual explanations (CE) are the de facto method for providing insights into black-box decision-making models by identifying alternative inputs that lead to different outcomes. However, existing CE approaches, including group and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Lei You , Lele Cao , Mattias Nilsson , Bo Zhao , Lei Lei

Fairness-aware machine learning has attracted a surge of attention in many domains, such as online advertising, personalized recommendation, and social media analysis in web applications. Fairness-aware machine learning aims to eliminate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Jing Ma , Ruocheng Guo , Aidong Zhang , Jundong Li

Transparency is an essential requirement of machine learning based decision making systems that are deployed in real world. Often, transparency of a given system is achieved by providing explanations of the behavior and predictions of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-18 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Lucas de Lara

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are methods for generating an alternative scenario that produces a different desirable outcome. For example, if a student is predicted to fail a course, then counterfactual explanations can provide the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-09 Bevan I. Smith

Counterfactual reasoning, a cornerstone of human cognition and decision-making, is often seen as the 'holy grail' of causal learning, with applications ranging from interpreting machine learning models to promoting algorithmic fairness.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Yahya Aalaila , Gerrit Großmann , Sumantrak Mukherjee , Jonas Wahl , Sebastian Vollmer

Counterfactual explanations promote explainability in machine learning models by answering the question "how should an input instance be perturbed to obtain a desired predicted label?". The comparison of this instance before and after…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Jing Ma , Ruocheng Guo , Saumitra Mishra , Aidong Zhang , Jundong Li

Deep learning models are widely used in traffic forecasting and have achieved state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. However, the black-box nature of those models makes the results difficult to interpret by users. This study aims to leverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Rushan Wang , Yanan Xin , Yatao Zhang , Fernando Perez-Cruz , Martin Raubal