Related papers: Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions by Con…
Diffusion models can be parameterized in terms of either score or energy function. The energy parameterization is attractive as it enables sampling procedures such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) that incorporates a Metropolis--Hastings…
This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…
We propose a method for approximating the large deviation rate function of time-integrated observables of diffusion processes, used in statistical physics to characterize the fluctuations of nonequilibrium systems. The method is based on…
We revisit the problem of estimating the parameters of a partially observed diffusion process, consisting of a hidden state process and an observed process, with a continuous time parameter. The estimation is to be done online, i.e. the…
Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a…
Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is the first theory for decision-making under uncertainty that combines full theoretical soundness and empirically realistic features [P.P. Wakker - Prospect theory: For risk and ambiguity, Page 2]. While…
In this paper we develop a continuous-time sequential importance sampling (CIS) algorithm which eliminates time-discretisation errors and provides online unbiased estimation for continuous time Markov processes, in particular for…
We introduce a nonparametric model for inferring time-evolving, unobserved probability distributions from discrete-time data consisting of unlabelled partitions. The latent process is a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion, and…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…
We consider a simple mean reverting diffusion process, with piecewise constant drift and diffusion coefficients, discontinuous at a fixed threshold. We discuss estimation of drift and diffusion parameters from discrete observations of the…
Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…
The stochastic nature of chemical reactions involving randomly fluctuating population sizes has lead to a growing research interest in discrete-state stochastic models and their analysis. A widely-used approach is the description of the…
With some regularity conditions maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) always produce asymptotically optimal (in the sense of consistency, efficiency, sufficiency, and unbiasedness) estimators. But in general, the MLEs lead to non-robust…
Consistency Models (CM) (Song et al., 2023) accelerate score-based diffusion model sampling at the cost of sample quality but lack a natural way to trade-off quality for speed. To address this limitation, we propose Consistency Trajectory…
We propose a novel Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method for reverse engineering the topological structure of stochastic reaction networks, a notoriously challenging problem that is relevant in many modern areas of research, like…
A new approach to the steady state detection in the uniformization method of solving continuous time Markov chains is introduced. The method is particularly useful in solving inhomogenous CTMC's in multiple steps, where the desired error…
The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics…
In this paper, we consider the filtering problem for partially observed diffusions, which are regularly observed at discrete times. We are concerned with the case when one must resort to time-discretization of the diffusion process if the…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…
We provide a general method to analyze the asymptotic properties of a variety of estimators of continuous time diffusion processes when the data are not only discretely sampled in time but the time separating successive observations may…