Related papers: Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions by Con…
We propose a unifying framework for the pricing of debt securities under general time-inhomogeneous short-rate diffusion processes. The pricing of bonds, bond options, callable/putable bonds, and convertible bonds (CBs) is covered. Using…
Propagation of charged cosmic-rays in the Galaxy depends on the transport parameters, whose number can be large depending on the propagation model under scrutiny. A standard approach for determining these parameters is a manual scan,…
Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability…
We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…
This paper presents a Markov-based system model for microfluidic molecular communication (MC) channels. By discretizing the advection-diffusion dynamics, the proposed model establishes a physically consistent state-space formulation. The…
We consider a one-dimensional diffusion process $(X_t)$ which is observed at $n+1$ discrete times with regular sampling interval $\Delta$. Assuming that $(X_t)$ is strictly stationary, we propose nonparametric estimators of the drift and…
Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…
In this work, we are concerned with existence and uniqueness of invariant measures for path-dependent random diffusions and their time discretizations. The random diffusion here means a diffusion process living in a random environment…
We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…
In this paper we discuss a closed-form approximation of the likelihood functions of an arbitrary diffusion process. The approximation is based on an exponential ansatz of the transition probability for a finite time step $\Delta t$, and a…
Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are versatile models for anomalous diffusion processes that have found widespread application in the quantitative sciences. Their scaling limits are typically non-Markovian, and the computation of their…
This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…
Estimating parameters of a diffusion process given continuous-time observations of the process via maximum likelihood approaches or, online, via stochastic gradient descent or Kalman filter formulations constitutes a well-established…
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are an important class of time-series models, used to describe stochastic systems evolving in continuous time. Simulating paths from these processes, particularly after conditioning on noisy…
This study explores a Gaussian quasi-likelihood approach for estimating parameters of diffusion processes with Markovian regime switching. Assuming the ergodicity under high-frequency sampling, we will show the asymptotic normality of the…
This paper introduces a family of recursively defined estimators of the parameters of a diffusion process. We use ideas of stochastic algorithms for the construction of the estimators. Asymptotic consistency of these estimators and…
The existence and consistency of a maximum likelihood estimator for the joint probability distribution of random parameters in discrete-time abstract parabolic systems are established by taking a nonparametric approach in the context of a…
In this paper, we provide a multiscale perspective on the problem of maximum marginal likelihood estimation. We consider and analyse a diffusion-based maximum marginal likelihood estimation scheme using ideas from multiscale dynamics. Our…
MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…