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Gaussian processes that can be decomposed into a smooth mean function and a stationary autocorrelated noise process are considered and a fully automatic nonparametric method to simultaneous estimation of mean and auto-covariance functions…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-19 Tatyana Krivobokova , Paulo Serra , Francisco Rosales , Karolina Klockmann

Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, it is well known that a major failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-24 Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick , Michael Jordan

The non-linear autoregressive (NLAR) model plays an important role in modeling and predicting time series. One-step ahead prediction is straightforward using the NLAR model, but the multi-step ahead prediction is cumbersome. For instance,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Kejin Wu , Dimitris N. Politis

Motivated by the remarkable success of Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) in regression modelling, we propose a novel nonparametric Bayesian method, termed Functional BART (FBART), tailored specifically for function-on-scalar…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Jiahao Cao , Shiyuan He , Bohai Zhang

Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainty by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have focused…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-25 Cooper Lorsung

Statistical inference with nonresponse is quite challenging, especially when the response mechanism is nonignorable. In this case, the validity of statistical inference depends on untestable correct specification of the response model. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-15 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosuke Morikawa , Keisuke Takahata

Efficient assessment of convolved hidden Markov models is discussed. The bottom-layer is defined as an unobservable categorical first-order Markov chain, while the middle-layer is assumed to be a Gaussian spatial variable conditional on the…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-10-19 Torstein Fjeldstad , Henning Omre

High-dimensional, heterogeneous data with complex feature interactions pose significant challenges for traditional predictive modeling approaches. While Projection to Latent Structures (PLS) remains a popular technique, it struggles to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Farwa Abbas , Hussain Ahmad , Claudia Szabo

We consider the problem of variable selection in high-dimensional settings with missing observations among the covariates. To address this relatively understudied problem, we propose a new synergistic procedure -- adaptive Bayesian SLOPE --…

We propose a general framework for non-normal multivariate data analysis called multivariate covariance generalized linear models (McGLMs), designed to handle multivariate response variables, along with a wide range of temporal and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-25 Wagner Hugo Bonat , Bent Jørgensen

Normal multi-scale transform [4] is a nonlinear multi-scale transform for representing geometric objects that has been recently investigated [1, 7, 10]. The restrictive role of the exact order of polynomial reproduction $P_e$ of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-11-19 Stanislav Harizanov

We consider estimation of a functional parameter of a realistically modeled data distribution based on observing independent and identically distributed observations. We define an $m$-th order Spline Highly Adaptive Lasso Minimum Loss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-05 Mark J. van der Laan , David Benkeser , Weixin Cai

We introduce a new empirical Bayes approach for large-scale multiple linear regression. Our approach combines two key ideas: (i) the use of flexible "adaptive shrinkage" priors, which approximate the nonparametric family of scale mixture of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-13 Youngseok Kim , Wei Wang , Peter Carbonetto , Matthew Stephens

This paper proposes a new methodological framework for estimating inferential models with latent variables. It also introduces a new latent variable regression model called LARX: an extension of the ubiquitous autoregressive model with…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-09 Daniil Bargman

We develop a modeling framework for dynamic function-on-scalars regression, in which a time series of functional data is regressed on a time series of scalar predictors. The regression coefficient function for each predictor is allowed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-25 Daniel R. Kowal

Motivated by disease progression-related studies, we propose an estimation method for fitting general non-homogeneous multi-state Markov models. The proposal can handle many types of multi-state processes, with several states and various…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-22 Alessia Eletti , Giampiero Marra , Rosalba Radice

Recent advances in the field of meta-learning have tackled domains consisting of large numbers of small ("few-shot") supervised learning tasks. Meta-learning algorithms must be able to rapidly adapt to any individual few-shot task, fitting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-22 Vivek Myers , Nikhil Sardana

Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Joshua Daniel Loyal

We tackle the problem of multiscale regression for predictors that are spatially or temporally indexed, or with a pre-specified multiscale structure, with a Bayesian modular approach. The regression function at the finest scale is expressed…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-18 Michele Peruzzi , David B. Dunson

We introduce the spike-and-slab group lasso (SSGL) for Bayesian estimation and variable selection in linear regression with grouped variables. We further extend the SSGL to sparse generalized additive models (GAMs), thereby introducing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-29 Ray Bai , Gemma E. Moran , Joseph Antonelli , Yong Chen , Mary R. Boland