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In many practices, scientists are particularly interested in detecting which of the predictors are truly associated with a multivariate response. It is more accurate to model multiple responses as one vector rather than separating each…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-16 Xiaotian Dai , Guifang Fu , Randall Reese , Shaofei Zhao , Zuofeng Shang

B-spline-based hidden Markov models employ B-splines to specify the emission distributions, offering a more flexible modelling approach to data than conventional parametric HMMs. We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, enabling the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Sida Chen , Bärbel Finkenstädt Rand

Over the last decades, the challenges in applied regression and in predictive modeling have been changing considerably: (1) More flexible model specifications are needed as big(ger) data become available, facilitated by more powerful…

Computation · Statistics 2025-10-07 Nikolaus Umlauf , Nadja Klein , Thorsten Simon , Achim Zeileis

The paper considers the problem of robust estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with dependent disturbances given by a general square integrable semimartingale with unknown distribution. An example of such a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-20 Victor Konev , Serguei Pergamenchtchikov

We propose a method for adaptive nonlinear sequential modeling of vector-time series data. Data is modeled as a nonlinear function of past values corrupted by noise, and the underlying non-linear function is assumed to be approximately…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-11 Qiuyi Han , Jie Ding , Edoardo Airoldi , Vahid Tarokh

Factor analysis models are widely utilized in social and behavioral sciences, such as psychology, education, and marketing, to measure unobservable latent traits. In this article, we introduce a nonlinear structured latent factor analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-07 Yimang Zhang , Xiaorui Wang , Jian Qing Shi

Learning multiple tasks sequentially requires neural networks to balance retaining knowledge, yet being flexible enough to adapt to new tasks. Regularizing network parameters is a common approach, but it rarely incorporates prior knowledge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Joanna Sliwa , Frank Schneider , Nathanael Bosch , Agustinus Kristiadi , Philipp Hennig

Change-plane regression identifies subpopulations through an interpretable linear threshold rule, but likelihood-based inference for the hard-threshold boundary is nonregular: objectives are non-smooth, the boundary is weakly identified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Yuki Ohnishi , Fan Li

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-31 Vahid Keshavarzzadeh , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan

We consider heteroscedastic nonparametric regression models, when both the mean function and variance function are unknown and to be estimated with nonparametric approaches. We derive convergence rates of posterior distributions for this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-07 Yuao Hu

We present Active Learning for Accelerated Bayesian Inference (\texttt{alabi}): an open-source Python package for performing Bayesian inference with computationally expensive models. Given a forward model and observational data to construct…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-20 Jessica Birky , Rory K. Barnes

Bayesian methods are developed for the multivariate nonparametric regression problem where the domain is taken to be a compact Riemannian manifold. In terms of the latter, the underlying geometry of the manifold induces certain symmetries…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Jean-François Angers , Peter T. Kim

An important feature of successful supervised machine learning applications is to be able to explain the predictions given by the regression or classification model being used. However, most state-of-the-art models that have good predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-14 Victor Coscrato , Marco Henrique de Almeida Inácio , Tiago Botari , Rafael Izbicki

We consider the regression problem of estimating functions on $\mathbb{R}^D$ but supported on a $d$-dimensional manifold $ \mathcal{M} \subset \mathbb{R}^D $ with $ d \ll D $. Drawing ideas from multi-resolution analysis and nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-14 Wenjing Liao , Mauro Maggioni , Stefano Vigogna

We establish estimations for the parameters of the output distribution for the softmax activation function using the probit function. As an application, we develop a new efficient Bayesian learning algorithm for fully connected neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-01 Tianbo Yang , Tianshuo Yang

We introduce a new method for learning Bayesian neural networks, treating them as a stack of multivariate Bayesian linear regression models. The main idea is to infer the layerwise posterior exactly if we know the target outputs of each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-20 Richard Kurle , Alexej Klushyn , Ralf Herbrich

Many scientific and engineering applications require fitting regression models that are nonlinear in the parameters. Advances in computer hardware and software in recent decades have made it easier to fit such models. Relative to fitting…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Peng Liu , William Q. Meeker

Multiple generalized additive models (GAMs) are a type of distributional regression wherein parameters of probability distributions depend on predictors through smooth functions, with selection of the degree of smoothness via $L_2$…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-26 Yousra El-Bachir , Anthony C. Davison

We conduct non-asymptotic analysis on the mean-field variational inference for approximating posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models that may involve latent variables. We show that the mean-field approximation to the posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-06 Wei Han , Yun Yang

Deep neural networks tend to underestimate uncertainty and produce overly confident predictions. Recently proposed solutions, such as MC Dropout and SDENet, require complex training and/or auxiliary out-of-distribution data. We propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-14 Akib Mashrur , Wei Luo , Nayyar A. Zaidi , Antonio Robles-Kelly
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