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The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…

Masks have remained an important mitigation strategy in the fight against COVID-19 due to their ability to prevent the transmission of respiratory droplets between individuals. In this work, we provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis…

Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…

Infectious diseases usually originate from a specific location within a city. Due to the heterogenous distribution of population and public facilities, and the structural heterogeneity of human mobility network embedded in space, infectious…

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to its extremely high infectivity, has been spreading rapidly around the world and bringing huge influence to socioeconomic development as well as people's daily life. Taking for example the virus…

Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…

Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…

Due to its high lethality amongst the elderly, the safety of nursing homes has been of central importance during the COVID-19 pandemic. With test procedures becoming available at scale, such as antigen or RT-LAMP tests, and increasing…

With the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spreading across the world, protective measures for containing the virus are essential, especially as long as no vaccine or effective treatment is available. One important measure is…

This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…

This paper uses Covasim, an agent-based model (ABM) of COVID-19, to evaluate and scenarios of epidemic spread in New York State (USA), the UK, and the Novosibirsk region (Russia). Epidemiological parameters such as contagiousness (virus…

The Coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 has been causing significant loss of life and unprecedented economical loss throughout the world. Social distancing and face masks are widely recommended around the globe in order to protect others…

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more than 14.5 million infections and 6,04,917 deaths in 212 countries over the last few months. Different drug intervention acting at multiple stages of pathogenesis of COVID-19 can substantially…

We propose an epidemiological model that includes the mobility patterns of the individuals, in the spirit to those considered in (Barmak, 2011, 2016) and (Medus, 2011). We assume that people move around in a city of 120x120 blocks with 300…

In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…

In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…

Touristic cities will suffer from COVID-19 emergency because of its economic impact on their communities. The first emergency phases involved a wide closure of such areas to support "social distancing" measures (i.e. travels limitation;…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop and adopt mathematical-statistical models of the pandemic for policy and planning purposes. To this end, this work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model…

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…