Related papers: Evaluating Efficacy of Indoor Non-Pharmaceutical I…
In this study, we present an integro-differential model to simulate the local spread of infections. The model incorporates a standard susceptible-infected-recovered (\textit{SIR}-) model enhanced by an integral kernel, allowing for…
COVID-19 has shown a relatively low mortality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms, while the severity of the disease among individuals with underlying health…
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for mathematical models that can project epidemic trends and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. To forecast the transmission of COVID-19, a major challenge is the accurate…
With the continued spread of coronavirus, the task of forecasting distinctive COVID-19 growth curves in different cities, which remain inadequately explained by standard epidemiological models, is critical for medical supply and treatment.…
This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…
Mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread are used for guiding the design of mitigation steps aimed at containing and decelerating the contagion, and at identifying impending breaches of health care system surge capacity. The challenges of…
Transmission risk of air-borne diseases in public transportation systems is a concern. The paper proposes a modified Wells-Riley model for risk analysis in public transportation systems to capture the passenger flow characteristics,…
In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area…
The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, NPI efficacy varies enormously between and within countries, mainly because of population and behavioural heterogeneity.…
We show that precise knowledge of epidemic transmission parameters is not required to build an informative model of the spread of disease. We propose a detailed model of the topology of the contact network under various external control…
Social distancing and lockdown are the two main non-pharmaceutical interventions being used by the UK government to contain and control the COVID-19 epidemic; these are being applied uniformly across the entire country, even though the…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
Reopening strategies are crucial to balance efforts of economic revitalization and bringing back a sense of normalcy while mitigating outbreaks and effectively flattening the infection curve. This paper proposes practical reopening,…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a surge in computational models to simulate disease dynamics and guide interventions. Agent-based models (ABMs) are well-suited to capture population and environmental heterogeneity, but their rapid deployment…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
Non-pharmacologic interventions (NPIs) are one method to mitigate the spread and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. NPIs promote protective actions to reduce exposure risk and can reduce mobility patterns within…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
In this paper, a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been used to track the evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in four countries of interest. In particular, the epidemic model, that depends on some basic characteristics,…