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Gaussian random fields on finite dimensional smooth manifolds whose variances reach their maximum value at smooth submanifolds are considered. Exact asymptotic behaviors of large excursion probabilities have been evaluated. Vector Gaussian…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-18 Vladimir I. Piterbarg

Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

We quantify the large deviations of Gaussian extreme value statistics on closed convex sets in d-dimensional Euclidean space. The asymptotics imply that the extreme value distribution exhibits a rate function that is a simple quadratic…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-31 Harsha Honnappa , Raghu Pasupathy , Prateek Jaiswal

We study extreme values of group-indexed stable random fields for discrete groups $G$ acting geometrically on spaces $X$ in the following cases: 1) $G$ acts freely, properly discontinuously by isometries on a CAT(-1) space $X$, 2) $G$ is a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-03-24 Jayadev Athreya , Mahan Mj , Parthanil Roy

Multivariate extreme value theory is concerned with modeling the joint tail behavior of several random variables. Existing work mostly focuses on asymptotic dependence, where the probability of observing a large value in one of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-11 Michaël Lalancette , Sebastian Engelke , Stanislav Volgushev

Let $X=\{X(x): x\in\mathbb{S}^N\}$ be a real-valued, centered Gaussian random field indexed on the $N$-dimensional unit sphere $\mathbb{S}^N$. Approximations to the excursion probability ${\mathbb{P}}\{\sup_{x\in\mathbb{S}^N}X(x)\ge u\}$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-16 Dan Cheng , Yimin Xiao

Gaussian random fields on Euclidean spaces whose variances reach their maximum values at unique points are considered. Exact asymptotic behaviors of probabilities of large absolute maximum of theirs trajectories have been evaluated using…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-12 Sergey G. Kobelkov , Vladimir I. Piterbarg

In this article we give a general criterion for some dependent Gaussian models to belong to maximal domain of attraction of Gumbel, following an application of the Stein-Chen method studied in Arratia et al(1989). We also show the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-03 Alberto Chiarini , Alessandra Cipriani , Rajat Subhra Hazra

Let $\mathbf{X}=\{X_{n}\}_{n\geq 1}$ be a sequence of stationary Gaussian variables and suppose that only some of the random variables from $\mathbf{X}$ can be observed. In this paper, by studying the limiting properties of multidimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-06 Yuan Fang , Zhongquan Tan

This paper focuses on inhomogeneous quadratic tests, which involve the sum of a dependent non-central chi-square with a Gaussian random variable. Unfortunately, no closed-form expression is available for the statistical distribution of the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-12 Daniel Egea-Roca , Gonzalo Seco-Granados , José A. López-Salcedo

We study the extreme value statistics of the zero-average Gaussian free field (GFF) on random $r$-regular graphs and the Gaussian free field on $r$-regular trees. For random $r$-regular graphs of diverging size, for every fixed $r\ge3$, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-19 Lisa Hartung , Andreas Klippel , Christian Mönch

We consider the clustering of extremes for stationary regularly varying random fields over arbitrary growing index sets. We study sufficient assumptions on the index set such that the limit of the point random fields of the exceedances…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-23 Riccardo Passeggeri , Olivier Wintenberger

Chi-square processes with trend appear naturally as limiting processes in various statistical models. In this paper we are concerned with the exact tail asymptotics of the supremum taken over (0; 1) of a class of locally stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-20 Peng Liu , Lanpeng Ji

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated, in particular when X 1 is not…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-21 Fabien Brosset , Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux , Pierre Petit

We establish higher-order nonasymptotic expansions for a difference between probability distributions of sums of i.i.d. random vectors in a Euclidean space. The derived bounds are uniform over two classes of sets: the set of all Euclidean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-30 Mayya Zhilova

We consider the sums $S_n=\xi_1+\cdots+\xi_n$ of independent identically distributed random variables. We do not assume that the $\xi$'s have a finite mean. Under subexponential type conditions on distribution of the summands, we find the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-20 D. Denisov , S. Foss , D. Korshunov

In this paper we consider the distribution of the maximum of a Gaussian field defined on non locally convex sets. Adler and Taylor or Aza\"\i s and Wschebor give the expansions in the locally convex case. The present paper generalizes their…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-25 Jean-Marc Azaïs , Viet-Hung Pham

We obtain an asymptotic normality result that reveals the precise asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of parameters for a very general class of linear mixed models containing cross random effects. In achieving the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Jiming Jiang , Matt P. Wand , Swarnadip Ghosh

The extremal tail probabilities of moving sums in a marked Poisson random field is examined here. These sums are computed by adding up the weighted occurrences of events lying within a scanning set of fixed shape and size. Change of measure…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Hock Peng Chan

We prove existence of (at most denumerable many) absolutely continuous invariant probability measures for random one-dimensional dynamical systems with asymptotic expansion. If the rate of expansion (Lyapunov exponents) is bounded away from…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-11-18 Vitor Araujo , Javier Solano