Related papers: CVaR-based Safety Analysis in the Infinite Time Ho…

This paper proposes an algorithm to calculate the maximal probability of unsafety with respect to trajectories of a stochastic process and a hazard set. The unsafe probability estimation problem is cast as a primal-dual pair of…

This work investigates the finite-horizon optimal covariance steering problem for discrete-time linear systems subject to both additive and multiplicative uncertainties as well as state and input chance constraints. In particular, a…

We propose a methodology for performing risk-averse quadratic regulation of partially observed Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) systems disturbed by process and output noise. To compensate against the induced variability due to both types of…

We study a continuous-time portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the difference between the CVaR and the expected terminal wealth. While the mean-CVaR…

Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…

A typical scenario-based evaluation framework seeks to characterize a black-box system's safety performance (e.g., failure rate) through repeatedly sampling initialization configurations (scenario sampling) and executing a certain test…

We present a new, tractable method for solving and analyzing risk-aware control problems over finite and infinite, discounted time-horizons where the dynamics of the controlled process are described as a martingale problem. Supposing…

We propose a new risk-constrained formulation of the classical Linear Quadratic (LQ) stochastic control problem for general partially-observed systems. Our framework is motivated by the fact that the risk-neutral LQ controllers, although…

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk assessment by incorporating topological data analysis (TDA), specifically cohomology groups, into the evaluation of equities portfolios. The study aims to go beyond traditional risk…

We consider the problem of risk-sensitive motion planning in the presence of randomly moving obstacles. To this end, we adopt a model predictive control (MPC) scheme and pose the obstacle avoidance constraint in the MPC problem as a…

We study the problem of predictive runtime monitoring of black-box dynamical systems with quantitative safety properties. The black-box setting stipulates that the exact semantics of the dynamical system and the controller are unknown, and…

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…

We study stochastic optimization problems with chance and risk constraints, where in the latter, risk is quantified in terms of the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We consider the distributionally robust versions of these problems, where…

To address deviations from expected performance in stochastic systems, we propose a risk-sensitive control synthesis method to minimize certain risk measures over the limiting stationary distribution. Specifically, we extend Worst-case…

In this paper, we present a novel data-driven approach to quantify safety for non-linear, discrete-time stochastic systems with unknown noise distribution. We define safety as the probability that the system remains in a given region of the…

The minimization of energy-like cost functionals is addressed in the context of optimal control problems. For a general class of dynamical systems, with possibly unstable and nonlinear free dynamics, it is shown that a sequence of solutions…

In this work, we address risk-averse Bayes-adaptive reinforcement learning. We pose the problem of optimising the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the total return in Bayes-adaptive Markov decision processes (MDPs). We show that a policy…

The manifold interactions between safety and security aspects makes it plausible to handle safety and security risks in an unified way. The paper develops a corresponding approach based on the discrete event systems (DEVS) paradigm. The…

In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for bounding the CVaR of a random variable $X$ using another related random variable $Y$, under assumptions on their cumulative and density functions. Our results yield practical tools for…

Value-at-risk (VaR), also known as quantile, is a crucial risk measure in finance and other fields. However, optimizing VaR metrics in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is challenging because VaR is non-additive and the traditional dynamic…