Related papers: CVaR-based Safety Analysis in the Infinite Time Ho…
Distributional reinforcement learning (RL) -- in which agents learn about all the possible long-term consequences of their actions, and not just the expected value -- is of great recent interest. One of the most important affordances of a…
We prove a general existence result in stochastic optimal control in discrete time where controls take values in conditional metric spaces, and depend on the current state and the information of past decisions through the evolution of a…
In this paper, we describe a novel approach for checking safety specifications of a dynamical system with exogenous inputs over infinite time horizon that is guaranteed to terminate in finite time with a conclusive answer. We introduce the…
Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge…
We propose a risk measurement approach for a risk-averse stochastic problem. We provide results that guarantee that our problem has a solution. We characterize and explore the properties of the argmin as a risk measure and the minimum as a…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
In this paper we address the problem of decision making within a Markov decision process (MDP) framework where risk and modeling errors are taken into account. Our approach is to minimize a risk-sensitive conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR)…
CoVaR (conditional value-at-risk) is a crucial measure for assessing financial systemic risk, which is defined as a conditional quantile of a random variable, conditioned on other random variables reaching specific quantiles. It enables the…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are two risk measures which are widely used in the practice of risk management. This paper deals with the problem of computing both VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation (with…
We consider the joint problem of system identification and inverse optimal control for discrete-time stochastic Linear Quadratic Regulators. We analyze finite and infinite time horizons in a partially observed setting, where the state is…
This paper considers a risk-constrained infinite-horizon optimal control problem and proposes to solve it in an iterative manner. Each iteration of the algorithm generates a trajectory from the starting point to the target equilibrium state…
This work studies the dynamic risk management of the risk-neutral value of the potential credit losses on a portfolio of derivatives. Sensitivities-based hedging of such liability is sub-optimal because of bid-ask costs, pricing models…
Risk-averse decision-making under uncertainty in partially observable domains is a central challenge in artificial intelligence and is essential for developing reliable autonomous agents. The formal framework for such problems is the…
We consider a risk-averse optimal control problem governed by an elliptic variational inequality (VI) subject to random inputs. By deriving KKT-type optimality conditions for a penalised and smoothed problem and studying convergence of the…
We develop a framework for convexifying a fairly general class of optimization problems. Under additional assumptions, we analyze the suboptimality of the solution to the convexified problem relative to the original nonconvex problem and…
In this paper, we propose a method for bounding the probability that a stochastic differential equation (SDE) system violates a safety specification over the infinite time horizon. SDEs are mathematical models of stochastic processes that…
In robotic planetary surface exploration, strategic mobility planning is an important task that involves finding candidate long-distance routes on orbital maps and identifying segments with uncertain traversability. Then, expert human…
Safe control in dynamic traffic environments remains a major challenge for autonomous vehicles (AVs), as ego vehicle and obstacle states are inherently affected by sensing noise and estimation uncertainty. However, existing studies have not…
A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…