Related papers: CVaR-based Safety Analysis in the Infinite Time Ho…
This paper proposes control approaches for discrete-time linear systems subject to stochastic disturbances. It employs Kalman filter to estimate the mean and covariance of the state propagation, and the worst-case conditional value-at-risk…
We tackle the problem of estimating risk measures of the infinite-horizon discounted cost within a Markov cost process. The risk measures we study include variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, we show…
In this paper, we consider a multi-objective control problem for stochastic systems that seeks to minimize a cost of interest while ensuring safety. We introduce a novel measure of safety risk using the conditional value-at-risk and a set…
Risk measures are important key figures to measure the adequacy of the reserves of a company. The most common risk measures in practice are Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Recently, quantum-based algorithms are…
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure that is being used extensively in various domains. We develop a new formula for the gradient of the CVaR in the form of a conditional expectation. Based on this formula, we…
We use one-step conditional risk mappings to formulate a risk averse version of a total cost problem on a controlled Markov process in discrete time infinite horizon. The nonnegative one step costs are assumed to be lower semi-continuous…
In several real-world applications involving decision making under uncertainty, the traditional expected value objective may not be suitable, as it may be necessary to control losses in the case of a rare but extreme event. Conditional…
Optimizing risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a general loss distribution is usually difficult, because 1) the loss function might lack structural properties such as convexity or…
Many safety-critical control systems must operate under latent uncertainty that sensors cannot directly resolve at decision time. Such uncertainty, arising from unknown physical properties, exogenous disturbances, or unobserved environment…
We present the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in the context of Markov chains and Markov decision processes with reachability and mean-payoff objectives. CVaR quantifies risk by means of the expectation of the worst p-quantile. As such it…
In this paper, we address the real-time risk-bounded safety verification problem of continuous-time state trajectories of autonomous systems in the presence of uncertain time-varying nonlinear safety constraints. Risk is defined as the…
CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is a risk metric widely used in finance. However, dynamically optimizing CVaR is difficult since it is not a standard Markov decision process (MDP) and the principle of dynamic programming fails. In this…
Enforcing safety in the presence of stochastic uncertainty is a challenging problem. Traditionally, researchers have proposed safety in the statistical mean as a safety measure in this case. However, ensuring safety in the statistical mean…
For many real-world decision-making problems subject to uncertainty, it may be essential to deal with multiple and often conflicting objectives while taking the decision-makers' risk preferences into account. Conditional value-at-risk…
Considering non-stationary environments in online optimization enables decision-maker to effectively adapt to changes and improve its performance over time. In such cases, it is favorable to adopt a strategy that minimizes the negative…
We consider a control problem for a finite-state Markov system whose performance is evaluated by a coherent Markov risk measure. For each policy, the risk of a state is approximated by a function of its features, thus leading to a…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…
We formulate and solve a discrete-time linear-quadratic regulation (LQR) problem in a finite horizon that penalizes temporal variability and stochastic variability of the state trajectory. Our approach enables the user to strike a balance…
The behaviour of a stochastic dynamical system may be largely influenced by those low-probability, yet extreme events. To address such occurrences, this paper proposes an infinite-horizon risk-constrained Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR)…