Related papers: From bid-ask credit default swap quotes to risk-ne…
We study computational problems in financial networks of banks connected by debt contracts and credit default swaps (CDSs). A main problem is to determine \emph{clearing} payments, for instance right after some banks have been exposed to a…
Estimation and inference in dynamic discrete choice models often relies on approximation to lower the computational burden of dynamic programming. Unfortunately, the use of approximation can impart substantial bias in estimation and results…
We establish a profound connection between coherent risk measures, a prominent object in quantitative finance, and uniform integrability, a fundamental concept in probability theory. Instead of working with absolute values of random…
This paper proposes a Conditional Method Confidence Set (CMCS) which allows to select the best subset of forecasting methods with equal predictive ability conditional on a specific economic regime. The test resembles the Model Confidence…
The target of this paper is to consider model the risky asset price on the financial market under the Knightian uncertainty, and pricing the ask and bid prices of the uncertain risk. We use the nonlinear analysis tool, i.e., G-frame work…
There are many practical difficulties in the calibration of computer models to experimental data. One such complication is the fact that certain combinations of the calibration inputs can cause the code to output data lacking fundamental…
Risk-neutral pricing dictates that the discounted derivative price is a martingale in a measure equivalent to the economic measure. The residual ambiguity for incomplete markets is here resolved by minimising the entropy of the price…
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be…
We study the interpretability of conditional probability estimates for binary classification under the agnostic setting or scenario. Under the agnostic setting, conditional probability estimates do not necessarily reflect the true…
We introduce, in continuous time, an axiomatic approach to assign to any financial position a dynamic ask (resp. bid) price process. Taking into account both transaction costs and liquidity risk this leads to the convexity (resp. concavity)…
The recent "correlation breakdown" in the modeling of credit default swaps, in which model correlations had to exceed 100% in order to reproduce market prices of supersenior tranches, is analyzed and argued to be a fundamental market…
A risk-neutral valuation framework is developed for pricing and hedging in-play football bets based on modelling scores by independent Poisson processes with constant intensities. The Fundamental Theorems of Asset Pricing are applied to…
Managing risk at the aggregate level is crucial for banks and financial institutions as required by the Basel III framework. In this paper, we introduce discrete time Bayesian state space models with Poisson measurements to model aggregate…
We price and replicate a variety of claims written on the log price $X$ and quadratic variation $[X]$ of a risky asset, modeled as a positive semimartingale, subject to stochastic volatility and jumps. The pricing and hedging formulas do…
In a series of recent papers, Damiano Brigo, Andrea Pallavicini, and co-authors have shown that the value of a contract in a Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) setting, being the sum of the cash flows, can be represented as a solution of a…
In this paper, we consider a financial market with assets exposed to some risks inducing jumps in the asset prices, and which can still be traded after default times. We use a default-intensity modeling approach, and address in this…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
We introduce Dirac processes, using Dirac delta functions, for short-rate-type pricing of financial derivatives. Dirac processes add spikes to the existing building blocks of diffusions and jumps. Dirac processes are Generalized Processes,…
In this paper, we investigate risk minimization problem of derivatives based on non-tradable underlyings by means of dynamic g-expectations which are slight different from conditional g-expectations. In this framework, inspired by [1] and…
We study the pricing problem for corporate defaultable bond from the viewpoint of the investors outside the firm that could not exactly know about the information of the firm. We consider the problem for pricing of corporate defaultable…