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We introduce a simple and tractable methodology for estimating semiparametric conditional latent factor models. Our approach disentangles the roles of characteristics in capturing factor betas of asset returns from ``alpha.'' We construct…
Kalman Filters (KF) are fundamental to real-time state estimation applications, including radar-based tracking systems used in modern driver assistance and safety technologies. In a linear dynamical system with Gaussian noise distributions…
This paper revisits the work of Rauch et al. (1965) and develops a novel method for recursive maximum likelihood particle filtering for general state-space models. The new method is based on statistical analysis of incomplete observations…
Currently, more and more machine learning (ML) surrogates are being developed for computationally expensive physical models. In this work we investigate the use of a Multi-Fidelity Ensemble Kalman Filter (MF-EnKF) in which the low-fidelity…
The real-world applications in signal processing generally involve estimating the system state or parameters in nonlinear, non-Gaussian dynamic systems. The estimation problem may get even more challenging when there are physical…
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a widely used methodology for state estimation in partial, noisily observed dynamical systems, and for parameter estimation in inverse problems. Despite its widespread use in the geophysical sciences,…
We propose a two stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of a fairly general, continuous-time stochastic volatility. An important ingredient of the proposed method is the Cuchiero-Teichmann volatility estimator, which is based…
This paper considers estimation of large dynamic factor models with common and idiosyncratic trends by means of the Expectation Maximization algorithm, implemented jointly with the Kalman smoother. We show that, as the cross-sectional…
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a popular technique for performing inference in state-space models (SSMs), particularly when the dynamic process is high-dimensional. Unlike reweighting methods such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, i.e.…
Low-rank matrix completion has achieved great success in many real-world data applications. A matrix factorization model that learns latent features is usually employed and, to improve prediction performance, the similarities between latent…
Designing estimation algorithms for systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) such as fluid flows is challenging due to the high-dimensional and oftentimes nonlinear nature of the dynamics, as well as their dependence on…
Latent feature models (LFM)s are widely employed for extracting latent structures of data. While offering high, parameter estimation is difficult with LFMs because of the combinational nature of latent features, and non-identifiability is a…
Satellite dynamics and tracking remain important challenges in the context of space exploration and communication systems. Accurate state estimation is essential to maintain reliable orbital motion and system performance. This paper…
In this paper, we propose a robust Kalman filtering framework for systems with probabilistic uncertainty in system parameters. We consider two cases, namely discrete time systems, and continuous time systems with discrete measurements. The…
In this paper we introduce a sublinear conditional expectation with respect to a family of possibly nondominated probability measures on a progressively enlarged filtration. In this way, we extend the classic reduced-form setting for credit…
We consider the problem of state estimation in dynamical systems and propose a different mechanism for handling unmodeled system uncertainties. Instead of injecting random process noise, we assign different weights to measurements so that…
State estimation of dynamical systems from noisy observations is a fundamental task in many applications. It is commonly addressed using the linear Kalman filter (KF), whose performance can significantly degrade in the presence of outliers…
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is widely used in statistics. The h-likelihood has been proposed as an extension of Fisher's likelihood to statistical models including unobserved latent variables of recent interest. Its advantage is that…
In this paper, the ensemble consider Kalman filter is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of uncertain parameters in nonlinear dynamic and measurement models. The ensemble Kalman filter can avoid using the Jacobian matrices and reduce…
This paper explores a time-varying version of weak-form market efficiency that is a key component of the so-called Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). One of the most common methodologies used for modeling and estimating a degree of market…