Related papers: On the Parameter Estimation in the Schwartz-Smiths…
We study a bivariate latent factor model for the pricing of commodity fu- tures. The two unobservable state variables representing the short and long term fac- tors are modelled as Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes. The Kalman Filter (KF)…
We examine a general multi-factor model for commodity spot prices and futures valuation. We extend the multi-factor long-short model in Schwartz and Smith (2000) and Yan (2002) in two important aspects: firstly we allow for both the long…
We present a new model for commodity pricing that enhances accuracy by integrating four distinct risk factors: spot price, stochastic volatility, convenience yield, and stochastic interest rates. While the influence of these four variables…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic asset price model where the trend is an unobservable Ornstein Uhlenbeck process. We first review some classical results from Kalman filtering. Expectedly, the choice of the parameters is crucial to…
We consider the problem of parameter estimation for the partially observed linear stochastic differential equation. We assume that the unobserved Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process depends on some unknown parameter and estimate the unobserved…
This paper presents an approach for simultaneous estimation of the state and unknown parameters in a sequential data assimilation framework. The state augmentation technique, in which the state vector is augmented by the model parameters,…
A one-factor asset pricing model with an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process as its state variable is studied under partial information: the mean-reverting level and the mean-reverting speed parameters are modeled as hidden/unobservable stochastic…
Kalman Filter requires the true parameters of the model and solves optimal state estimation recursively. Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is applicable for estimating the parameters of the model that are not available before Kalman…
In stochastic multi-factor commodity models, it is often the case that futures prices are explained by two latent state variables which represent the short and long term stochastic factors. In this work, we develop the family of stochastic…
Uncertain parameters of state-space models have always been a considerable problem. Consider Kalman filter (CKF) and desensitized Kalman filter (DKF) are two methods to solve this problem. Based on the sensitivity matrix respected to the…
This paper is concerned with the linear/nonlinear Kalman-like filtering problem under binary sensors. Since innovation represents new information in the sensor measurement and serves to correct the prediction for the Kalman-like filter…
The Kalman Filter (KF) parameters are traditionally determined by noise estimation, since under the KF assumptions, the state prediction errors are minimized when the parameters correspond to the noise covariance. However, noise estimation…
The Kalman filter (KF) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) are well established techniques for state estimation. However, the choice of the filter tuning parameters still poses a major challenge for the engineers [1]. In the present work,…
The models of partially observed linear stochastic differential equations with unknown initial values of the non-observed component are considered in two situations. In the first problem, the initial value is deterministic, and in the…
We consider a problem of parameter estimation for the state space model described by linear stochastic differential equations. We assume that an unobservable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process drives another observable process by the linear…
This technical note addresses the UD factorization based Kalman filtering (KF) algorithms. Using this important class of numerically stable KF schemes, we extend its functionality and develop an elegant and simple method for computation of…
Have you ever felt miserable because of a sudden whipsaw in the price that triggered an unfortunate trade? In an attempt to remove this noise, technical analysts have used various types of moving averages (simple, exponential, adaptive one…
In this paper, we address the identification problem for the systems characterized by linear time-invariant dynamics with bilinear observation models. More precisely, we consider a suitable parametric description of the system and formulate…
This paper investigates the state estimation problem for unknown linear systems subject to both process and measurement noise. Based on a prior input-output trajectory sampled at a higher frequency and a prior state trajectory sampled at a…
Stochastic differential equations such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have long been used to model realworld probablistic events such as stock prices and temperature fluctuations. While statistical methods such as Maximum Likelihood…