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We propose a new data-augmentation strategy for fully Bayesian inference in models with binomial likelihoods. The approach appeals to a new class of Polya-Gamma distributions, which are constructed in detail. A variety of examples are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-20 Nicholas G. Polson , James G. Scott , Jesse Windle

Predicting species distributions using occupancy models accounting for imperfect detection is now commonplace in ecology. Recently, modelling spatial and temporal autocorrelation was proposed to alleviate the lack of replication in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-10 André Luís Luza , Didier Alard , Frédéric Barraquand

For many taxonomic groups, online biodiversity portals used by naturalists and citizen scientists constitute the primary source of distributional information. Over the last decade, site-occupancy models have been advanced as a promising…

Modern methods for quantifying and predicting species distribution play a crucial part in biodiversity conservation. Occupancy models are a popular choice for analyzing species occurrence data as they allow to separate the observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-19 Jafet Belmont , Sara Martino , Janine Illian , Håvard Rue

Spatial models for occupancy data are used to estimate and map the true presence of a species, which may depend on biotic and abiotic factors as well as spatial autocorrelation. Traditionally researchers have accounted for spatial…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-05 Narmadha M. Mohankumar , Trevor J. Hefley

Occupancy modeling is a common approach to assess spatial and temporal species distribution patterns, while explicitly accounting for measurement errors common in detection-nondetection data. Numerous extensions of the basic single species…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-04 Jeffrey W. Doser , Andrew O. Finley , Marc Kéry , Elise F. Zipkin

Occupancy models are typically used to determine the probability of a species being present at a given site while accounting for imperfect detection. The survey data underlying these models often include information on several predictors…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-09 Daniel Taylor-Rodriguez , Andrew Womack , Claudio Fuentes , Nikolay Bliznyuk

Occupancy models are frequently used by ecologists to quantify spatial variation in species distributions while accounting for observational biases in the collection of detection-nondetection data. However, the common assumption that a…

In ecology we may find scenarios where the same phenomenon (species occurrence, species abundance, etc.) is observed using two different types of samplers. For instance, species data can be collected from scientific sampling with a…

Citizen science datasets can be very large and promise to improve species distribution modelling, but detection is imperfect, risking bias when fitting models. In particular, observers may not detect species that are actually present.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-20 Martin Ingram , Damjan Vukcevic , Nick Golding

Wildlife monitoring for open populations can be performed using a number of different survey methods. Each survey method gives rise to a type of data and, in the last five decades, a large number of associated statistical models have been…

We propose a scalable stochastic variational approach to GP classification building on Polya-Gamma data augmentation and inducing points. Unlike former approaches, we obtain closed-form updates based on natural gradients that lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-28 Florian Wenzel , Theo Galy-Fajou , Christan Donner , Marius Kloft , Manfred Opper

Despite the dominant role of deep models in machine learning, limitations persist, including overconfident predictions, susceptibility to adversarial attacks, and underestimation of variability in predictions. The Bayesian paradigm provides…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Alisa Sheinkman , Sara Wade

Occupancy grids encode for hot spots on a map that is represented by a two dimensional grid of disjoint cells. The problem is to recursively update the probability that each cell in the grid is occupied, based on a sequence of sensor…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-13 Christopher Robbiano , Edwin K. P. Chong , Mahmood R. Azimi-Sadjadi , Louis L. Scharf , Ali Pezeshki

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-21 Chris Strickland , Robert Burdett , Robert Denham , Robert Kohn , Kerrie Mengersen

We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

Analysing non-Gaussian spatial-temporal data requires introducing spatial as well as temporal dependence in generalised linear models through the link function of an exponential family distribution. Unlike in Gaussian likelihoods, inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Soumyakanti Pan , Lu Zhang , Jonathan R. Bradley , Sudipto Banerjee

The INLA package provides a tool for computationally efficient Bayesian modeling and inference for various widely used models, more formally the class of latent Gaussian models. It is a non-sampling based framework which provides…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-26 Janet van Niekerk , Haakon Bakka , Haavard Rue , Olaf Schenk

We introduce a dynamic generative model, Bayesian allocation model (BAM), which establishes explicit connections between nonnegative tensor factorization (NTF), graphical models of discrete probability distributions and their Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-12 Ali Taylan Cemgil , Mehmet Burak Kurutmaz , Sinan Yildirim , Melih Barsbey , Umut Simsekli

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-12-16 Sebastian J. Schreiber , Maureen E. Ryan
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