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Relying on the optimal guessing strategy recently found for a no-feedback card guessing game with $k$-time riffle shuffles, we derive an exact, closed-form formula for the expected number of correct guesses and higher moments for a $1$-time…

We consider a card guessing game with complete feedback. An ordered deck of $n$ cards labeled $1$ up to $n$ is riffle-shuffled exactly one time. Given a value $p\in(0{,}1)\setminus\{\frac12\}$, the riffle shuffle is assumed to be…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-02-13 Markus Kuba

This paper studies the game of guessing riffle-shuffled cards with complete feedback. A deck of $n$ cards labelled 1 to $n$ is riffle-shuffled once and placed on a table. A player tries to guess the cards from top and is given complete…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-20 Pengda Liu

We consider a card guessing game with complete feedback. An ordered deck of $n$ cards labeled $1$ up to $n$ is shelf-shuffled exactly one time. One after the other a single card is drawn from the shuffled deck. The guesser makes has guess…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Markus Kuba

We consider a card guessing game with complete feedback. A ordered deck of n cards labeled 1 up to n is riffle-shuffled exactly one time. Then, the goal of the game is to maximize the number of correct guesses of the cards, where one after…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-08-31 Markus Kuba , Alois Panholzer

We consider the following card guessing game with no feedback. An ordered deck of n cards labeled 1 up to n is riffle-shuffled exactly one time. Then, the goal of the game is to maximize the number of correct guesses of the cards. One after…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-08-31 Markus Kuba , Alois Panholzer

In 1998, Ciucu published "No-feedback card guessing for dovetail shuffles", an article which gives the optimal guessing strategy for $n$ cards ($n$ even) after $k$ riffle shuffles whenever $k>2\log_{2}\left(n\right)$. We discuss in this…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2022-05-19 Tipaluck Krityakierne , Thotsaporn Aek Thanatipanonda

In simple card games, cards are dealt one at a time and the player guesses each card sequentially. We study problems where feedback (e.g. correct/incorrect) is given after each guess. For decks with repeated values (as in blackjack where…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-20 Persi Diaconis , Ron Graham , Sam Spiro

Consider the following one player game. A deck containing $m$ copies of $n$ different card types is shuffled uniformly at random. Each round the player tries to guess the next card in the deck, and then the card is revealed and discarded.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-20 Sam Spiro

Consider n cards that are labeled 1 through n with n an even integer. The cards are put face down and their ordering starts with card labeled 1 on top through card labeled n at the bottom. The cards are top to random shuffled m times and…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-06-08 Lerna Pehlivan

We consider the following game. A deck with $m$ copies of each of $n$ distinct cards is shuffled in a perfectly random way. The Guesser sequentially guesses the card from top to bottom. After each guess, the Guesser is informed whether the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-19 Zipei Nie

Mechanical shufflers used in many casinos employ a card shuffling scheme called \emph{shelf shuffling}. In a single-shelf shuffling, cards arrive sequentially, and each incoming card is independently placed on the top or the bottom of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Raghavendra Tripathi

Consider a uniformly random deck consisting of cards labelled by numbers from $1$ through $n$, possibly with repeats. A guesser guesses the top card, after which it is revealed and removed and the game continues. What is the expected number…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-26 Jimmy He , Andrea Ottolini

A card guessing game is played between two players, Guesser and Dealer. At the beginning of the game, the Dealer holds a deck of $n$ cards (labeled $1, ..., n$). For $n$ turns, the Dealer draws a card from the deck, the Guesser guesses…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2022-01-04 Boaz Menuhin , Moni Naor

We investigate a one-time single shelf shuffle by establishing the position matrix explicitly. In some cases, we prove a no-feedback optimal guessing strategy. A general no-feedback strategy is conjectured, and asymptotics for the expected…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-15 Alexander Clay

Consider the following experiment: a deck with $m$ copies of $n$ different card types is randomly shuffled, and a guesser attempts to guess the cards sequentially as they are drawn. Each time a guess is made, some amount of "feedback" is…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Persi Diaconis , Ron Graham , Xiaoyu He , Sam Spiro

We consider the following game that has been used as a way of testing claims of extrasensory perception (ESP). One is given a deck of $mn$ cards comprised of $n$ distinct types each of which appears exactly $m$ times: this deck is shuffled…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-17 Andrea Ottolini , Stefan Steinerberger

The recent popularity of Wordle has revived interest in guessing games. We develop a general method for finding optimal strategies for guessing games while avoiding an exhaustive search. Our main contributions are several theorems that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-17 Michael Cunanan , Michael Thielscher

We study a game where one player selects a random function, and the other has to guess that function, and show that with high probability the second player can correctly guess most of the random function. We apply this analysis to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-28 Catherine Rainer , Eilon Solan

We consider a problem of shuffling a deck of cards with ordered labels. Namely we split the deck of N=k^tq cards (where t>=1 is maximal) into k equally sized stacks and then take the top card off of each stack and sort them by the order of…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2010-03-24 Steve Butler , Ron Graham
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