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Researchers are often interested in analyzing conditional treatment effects. One variant of this is "causal moderation," which implies that intervention upon a third (moderator) variable would alter the treatment effect. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-25 Kirk Bansak

Recent work on dynamic interventions has greatly expanded the range of causal questions researchers can study while weakening identifying assumptions and yielding effects that are more practically relevant. However, most work in dynamic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-10 Jacqueline A Mauro , Edward H Kennedy , Daniel Nagin

Mediation analysis is critical to understanding the mechanisms underlying exposure-outcome relationships. In this paper, we identify the instrumental variable (IV)-direct effect of the exposure on the outcome not through the mediator, using…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Mark J van der Laan

Path-specific effects are a broad class of mediated effects from an exposure to an outcome via one or more causal pathways with respect to some subset of intermediate variables. The majority of the literature concerning estimation of…

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Mediation analysis aims to identify and estimate the effect of an exposure on an outcome that is mediated through one or more intermediate variables. In the presence of multiple intermediate variables, two pertinent methodological questions…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-06 Allan Jérolon , Flora Alarcon , Florence Pittion , Magali Richard , Olivier François , Etienne E. Birmelé , Vittorio Perduca

Adapting the final sample size of a trial to the evidence accruing during the trial is a natural way to address planning uncertainty. Designs with adaptive sample size need to account for their optional stopping to guarantee strict type-I…

Causal mediation analyses investigate the mechanisms through which causes exert their effects, and are therefore central to scientific progress. The literature on the non-parametric definition and identification of mediational effects in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-13 Richard Liu , Nicholas T. Williams , Kara E. Rudolph , Iván Díaz

This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

Natural direct and indirect effects decompose the effect of a treatment into the part that is mediated by a covariate (the mediator) and the part that is not. Their definitions rely on the concept of outcomes under treatment with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok

Transported mediation effects may contribute to understanding how and why interventions may work differently when applied to new populations. However, we are not aware of any estimators for such effects. Thus, we propose several different…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E Rudolph , Jonathan Levy , Mark J van der Laan

We consider missingness in the context of causal inference when the outcome of interest may be missing. If the outcome directly affects its own missingness status, i.e., it is "self-censoring", this may lead to severely biased causal effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-12 Jacob M Chen , Daniel Malinsky , Rohit Bhattacharya

Causal mediation analysis is widely used to investigate how causal effects operate through specific pathways linking treatments or exposures to outcomes. Recently, \texttt{crumble} was developed to enable nonparametric estimation of several…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Richard Liu , Nicholas T. Williams , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz

Unlike classical causal inference, which often has an average causal effect of a treatment within a population as a target, in settings such as personalized medicine, the goal is to map a given unit's characteristics to a treatment tailored…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-13 Ilya Shpitser , Sourjya Sarkar

The paper considers mediation analysis with longitudinal data under latent growth curve models within a counterfactual framework. Estimators and their standard errors are derived for natural direct and indirect effects when the mediator,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-11 Adam J. Sullivan , Douglas D. Gunzler , Nathan Morris , Tyler J. VanderWeele

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

In this article, we consider the problem of testing the independence between two random variables. Our primary objective is to develop tests that are highly effective at detecting associations arising from explicit or implicit functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Seetharaman P , Sagnik Das , Angshuman Roy

Synthetic control (SC) methods have been widely applied to estimate the causal effect of large-scale interventions, e.g., the state-wide effect of a change in policy. The idea of synthetic controls is to approximate one unit's…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-15 Claudia Shi , Dhanya Sridhar , Vishal Misra , David M. Blei
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