Related papers: Moore's law, Wright's law and the Countdown to Exp…
As large-scale AI models expand, training becomes costlier and sustaining progress grows harder. Classical scaling laws (e.g., Kaplan et al. (2020), Hoffmann et al. (2022)) predict training loss from a static compute budget yet neglect time…
Following findings by Ormerod and Mounfield, Wright rises the problem whether a power or an exponential law describes the distribution of occurrences of economic recession periods. In order to clarify the controversy a different set of GDP…
We show that, in the context of Moore's Law, overall productivity can be increased for large enough computations by `slacking' or waiting for some period of time before purchasing a computer and beginning the calculation.
While past information technology (IT) advances have transformed society, future advances hold even greater promise. For example, we have only just begun to reap the changes from artificial intelligence (AI), especially machine learning…
The exponential growth in the number of scientific papers makes it increasingly difficult for researchers to keep track of all the publications relevant to their work. Consequently, the attention that can be devoted to individual papers,…
Computing systems have undergone several inflexion points - while Moore's law guided the semiconductor industry to cram more and more transistors and logic into the same volume, the limits of instruction-level parallelism (ILP) and the end…
An indispensable part of our lives, computing has also become essential to industries and governments. Steady improvements in computer hardware have been supported by periodic doubling of transistor densities in integrated circuits over the…
We introduce a stochastic model to explain a double power-law distribution which exhibits two different Paretian behaviors in the upper and the lower tail and widely exists in social and economic systems. The model incorporates fitness…
Ormerod and Mounfield analysed GDP data of 17 leading capitalist economies from 1870 to 1994 and concluded that the frequency of the duration of recessions is consistent with a power-law. But in fact the data is consistent with an…
When the probability of measuring a particular value of some quantity varies inversely as a power of that value, the quantity is said to follow a power law, also known variously as Zipf's law or the Pareto distribution. Power laws appear…
Computing has dramatically changed nearly every aspect of our lives, from business and agriculture to communication and entertainment. As a nation, we rely on computing in the design of systems for energy, transportation and defense; and…
The total number of patents produced by a country (or the number of patents produced per capita) is often used as an indicator for innovation. Here we present evidence that the distribution of patents amongst applicants within many OECD…
Exponential growth occurs when the growth rate of a given quantity is proportional to the quantity's current value. Surprisingly, when exponential growth data is plotted as a simple histogram disregarding the time dimension, a remarkable…
There is a natural connection between two types of recurrence law: hitting times to shrinking targets, and hitting times to a fixed target (usually seen as escape through a hole). We show that for systems which mix exponentially fast, one…
At any sustained positive growth rate of energy demand, depletion of all terrestrial energy resources, including non-renewable deuterium fusion and renewable solar, occurs within a remarkably compressed period. The time to depletion is…
The physical limits to computation have been under active scrutiny over the past decade or two, as theoretical investigations of the possible impact of quantum mechanical processes on computing have begun to make contact with realizable…
This study is grounded in the concept of spatial symmetry, which allows two co-phase RF sources to jointly radiate harmonic electromagnetic (EM) waves, even in presence of electromagnetic couplings between them. The superposition law is…
Power law distributions of macroscopic observables are ubiquitous in both the natural and social sciences. They are indicative of correlated, cooperative phenomena between groups of interacting agents at the microscopic level. In this paper…
The end of Moore's Law and Dennard scaling has fundamentally changed the economics of computer architecture. With transistor scaling delivering diminishing returns, architectural innovation is now the primary - and perhaps only - remaining…
It is undeniable that the worldwide computer industry's center is the US, specifically in Silicon Valley. Much of the reason for the success of Silicon Valley had to do with Moore's Law: the observation by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that…