Related papers: Moore's law, Wright's law and the Countdown to Exp…

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early…

There is a common wisdom according to which many technologies can progress according to some exponential law like the empirical Moore's law that was validated for over half a century with the growth of transistors number in chipsets. As a…

Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated…

As it is pretty sure that Moore's law will end some day, questioning about the post-Moore era is more than interesting. Similarly, looking for new computing paradigms that could provide solutions is important. Revisiting the history of…

For the last 60 years, advances in conventional computing platforms have been driven by the empirical notion known as Moores law. In its essence, Moores law is a ubiquitous description of the exponential increase in transistor density…

Although the brain has long been considered a potential inspiration for future computing, Moore's Law - the scaling property that has seen revolutions in technologies ranging from supercomputers to smart phones - has largely been driven by…

Moore's Law has been used by semiconductor industry as predicative indicators of the industry and it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now more people tend to agree that the original Moore's Law started to falter. This paper proposes a…

This paper argues that continued AI scaling requires repeated efficiency doublings. Classical AI scaling laws remain useful because they make progress predictable despite diminishing returns, but the compute variable in those laws is best…

We study long-run progress in artificial intelligence in a quantitative way. Many measures, including traditional ones such as patents and publications, machine learning benchmarks, and a new Aggregate State of the Art in ML (or ASOTA)…

Moore's law and two equations allow to explain the main trends of CPU evolution since MOS technologies have been used to implement microprocessors.

Denizens of Silicon Valley have called Moore's Law "the most important graph in human history," and economists have found that Moore's Law-powered I.T. revolution has been one of the most important sources of national productivity growth.…

This paper introduces a method for linking technological improvement rates (i.e. Moore's Law) and technology adoption curves (i.e. S-Curves). There has been considerable research surrounding Moore's Law and the generalized versions applied…

Compute, data, and algorithmic advances are the three fundamental factors that guide the progress of modern Machine Learning (ML). In this paper we study trends in the most readily quantified factor - compute. We show that before 2010…

Newton's laws of motion perfectly explain or approximate physical phenomena in our everyday life. Are there any laws that explain or approximate technology's rise or fall? After reviewing thirteen information technologies that succeeded,…

The question how complex systems become more organized and efficient with time is open. Examples are, the formation of elementary particles from pure energy, the formation of atoms from particles, the formation of stars and galaxies, the…

Power law is one of the the simplest forms of the relationship between different variables of a system. It leads naturally to the introduction of compound parameters describing physical properties of the system. Often one of the variables…

The semiconductor industry is reaching a fascinating confluence in several evolutionary trends that will likely lead to a number of revolutionary changes in how computer systems are designed, implemented, scaled, and used. Since Moores Law,…

Inexact computing aims to compute good solutions that require considerably less resource -- typically energy -- compared to computing exact solutions. While inexactness is motivated by concerns derived from technology scaling and Moore's…

For decades, Moore's Law has served as a steadfast pillar in computer architecture and system design, promoting a clear abstraction between hardware and software. This traditional Moore's computing paradigm has deepened the rift between the…

Energy and power consumption are major limitations to continued scaling of computing systems. Inexactness, where the quality of the solution can be traded for energy savings, has been proposed as an approach to overcoming those limitations.…