Related papers: Testing and Isolation Efficacy: Insights from a Si…
The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…
We study extensions of the classical SIR model of epidemic spread. First, we consider a single population modified SIR epidemics model in which the contact rate is allowed to be an arbitrary function of the fraction of susceptible and…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people's lives significantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been significant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the…
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been used for decades to understand epidemic outbreak dynamics. We develop an SIR model specifically designed to study the effects of population behavior with respect to health and…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
Recent empirical observations suggest a heterogeneous nature of human activities. The heavy-tailed inter-event time distribution at population level is well accepted, while whether the individual acts in a heterogeneous way is still under…
We study a multilayer SIR model with two levels of mixing, namely a global level which is uniformly mixing, and a local level with two layers distinguishing household and workplace contacts, respectively. We establish the large population…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
To contain the propagation of emerging diseases that are transmissible from human to human, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aimed at reducing the interactions between humans are usually implemented. One example of the latter kind of…
The ability to actually implement epidemic models is a crucial stake for public institutions, as they may be overtaken by the increasing complexity of current models and sometimes tend to revert to less elaborate models such as the SIR. In…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 spreading, the number of studies on the epidemic models increased dramatically. It is important for policymakers to know how the disease will spread and what are the effects of the policies and…